The role of the status quo bias in the perpetuation of farm work and remaining in situ – exemplified with data from Southeast Europe

农业部门转型和农业就业人数的减少往往伴随着农村人口的迁出。这些现象在后共产主义国家非常突出，那里的农村人口年龄过大，“幽灵”村已成为众所周知的伴生物。它们也是许多科学工作的核心。然而，大多数农民倾向于保持不动。在这项拟议中的研究中，我们刻意避免将我们的注意力从可以被称为“流动性偏见”的现象上转移，而是转向静止不动的现象。尽管存在离开农业部门和移民的经济和非经济动机，但将农民与其经济部门和农村血统联系在一起的原因在文献中基本上被忽视了。因此，我们将侧重于决定继续耕作和留在原地的因素(及其相互联系)。从理论上讲，我们的研究灵感来自于所谓的现状偏差，即对当前状态的(夸大的)偏好。将现状偏差整合到更标准的基于效用的经济决策模型中，通过提供对在结构变化和移民激励应引发相反结果的世界中固定选择之谜的洞察，增加了科学价值。一个基于主观预期效用(SEU)理论的描述性现状模型将指导对农民继续耕作和原地不动的选择的实证分析。以个人为基础的现状偏见的可操作性是实现这一目标的关键一步。我们建议通过创新的选择实验来测量现状偏差。为了更深入地理解指导家庭成员决策的认知要素，我们将整合计划行为理论(TPB)的见解。TPB已被证明在解释不执行行为(在我们的情况下，不离开农业部门和迁徙)的原因方面很有用，并将使用最先进的偏最小二乘结构方程模型来实施。我们建议阿尔巴尼亚和科索沃作为实证研究的案例国家。这两个国家都有以小规模家庭农场为特征的农村部门。它们也有动态的移徙模式，以至于移徙已成为经济活跃的农村人口的共同生计选择。因此，必须积极选择所谓的默认选择，即继续耕种并留在原地。我们的研究项目一方面将为基础研究的新见解铺平道路，另一方面也将有助于解决农业经济学中的一个实证难题。从更广泛的意义上讲，该研究项目还将有助于更详细地了解由此产生的进程，如农村人口外流、农业和区域发展结构变化缓慢以及相关的社会凝聚力困境。

Agricultural sector transformation and the decreasing number of individuals employed in agriculture are often accompanied by rural out-migration. These phenomena are salient in post-communist countries, where the rural population is over-aged and ‘ghost’ villages have become a well-known concomitant. They are also central to many scientific works. The majority of farmers, nevertheless, tend to remain immobile. In this proposed research, we deliberately avert our focus away from what could be called a ‘mobility bias’ and instead turn towards the phenomenon of immobility. The reasons that tie farmers to their economic sector and rural origin in spite of economic and non-economic incentives to leave the farming sector and migrate have been largely ignored in the literature. We will therefore focus on the factors that work toward the decision to continue farming and to remain in situ (and their interlinkages). Theoretically, our work is inspired by what is known as the status quo bias, described as an (exaggerated) preference for the current state. Integrating the status quo bias into more standard utility-based economic decision models adds scientific value by offering insights into the puzzle of immobility choices in a world where structural change and migration incentives should trigger the opposite. A descriptive status quo model—based on the subjective expected utility (SEU) theory—will guide the empirical analysis of farmers’ choices to continue farming and remain in situ. The operationalisation of the status quo bias on an individual basis is an essential step for that. We propose to measure the status quo bias by employing innovative choice experiments. For a deeper understanding of the cognitive elements that guide the decisions of farm household members, we will then integrate insights from the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). TPB has proved useful in explaining reasons for not performing a behaviour (in our case not leaving the farming sector and migrating) and will be implemented with state-of-the-art partial least squares structural equation models. We propose Albania and Kosovo as case countries for the empirical research. Both countries have rural sectors that are characterised by small-scale family farms. They also have dynamic migration patterns to the extent that migration has become a common livelihood option for the economically active rural population. As a result, the alleged default option of continuing farming and remaining in situ has to be actively chosen. Our research project will pave way for new insights in basic research, on the one hand, and contribute to solving an empirical puzzle within agricultural economics, on the other hand. In a wider sense, the research project will furthermore contribute to a more detailed understanding of resulting processes such as the rural exodus, slow structural change in agriculture and regional development, and the related social cohesion dilemma.