Families, Housing Decisions and Housing Policies

家庭组成及其变化是家庭住房决策的关键决定因素。例如，子女的数量和年龄，或者与亲戚共同居住都会影响家庭对主要住所的大小，建筑类型和位置的偏好。不同住房市场中可供出租或出售的住房单位的相对稀缺性对家庭的总体住房支出及其拥有住房的决定产生影响。后者进一步受到家庭借贷能力的影响，家庭借贷能力通过财务储蓄和劳动力市场前景对当前和过去的家庭事件作出反应。最后，许多实际住房政策要么专门针对家庭，要么因家庭组成而有很大差异。本研究项目的目的是研究家庭在家庭住房决策中的作用，并分析住房市场和家庭住房政策对家庭财富积累、财富不平等、代际财富传递和福利的影响。我们将建立一个结构均衡模型，在这个模型中，家庭决定住房、消费和劳动力供给，而家庭组成在生命周期中是变化的。具体来说，我们考虑一个随机老龄化模型，其中个人经历结婚，离婚和生育事件。与总生产部门相比，住房供应是内生的，因此房价、租金和住房存量会对政策变化做出反应。该模型将被校准以复制德国家庭类型、收入和住房之间的主要关系。校正后的模型将用于研究住房政策对不同家庭类型的分配和福利影响。我们进一步对住房政策的影响进行了实证评估，例如2005年德国首次购房者补贴的废除，使用因果推理方法，并将模型的预测与我们的实证结果进行了比较。

The family composition and changes thereof are key determinants of households’ housing decisions. For instance, the number and ages of children, or the co-residence with relatives affect the household’s preference for size, building type and location of the main residence. The relative scarcity of housing units for rent or sale in different housing market segments takes an impact on overall housing expenditures of the household and on its decision to own. The latter is further influenced by the household’s borrowing capacity which responds, via financial savings and labor market prospects, to current and past family events. Finally, many factual housing policies are either specifically targeted to families or vary strongly with the household composition.The goal of this research project is to examine the role of the family for households’ housing decisions and to analyze the impact of the housing market and family-housing policies on household wealth accumulation, wealth inequality, intergenerational wealth transmission and welfare. We will develop a structural equilibrium model in which households decide about housing, consumption and labor supply while the family composition varies over the lifecycle. Specifically, we consider a stochastic aging model in which individuals experience marriage, divorce and childbirth events. Next to an aggregate production sector, housing supply is endogenous, so that the house price, the rental rate and the housing stock respond to policy changes. The model will be calibrated to replicate the main relationships between family type, income and housing of households in Germany. The calibrated model will be used to investigate the distributional and welfare impact of housing policies on different household types. We further conduct an empirical evaluation of the impact of housing policies, such as the abolishment of the German first-time home buyer allowance in the year 2005, using causal inference methods and compare the model’s predictions to our empirical findings.