Stay, go back, or move on: Comparing the life strategies of forced migrants in the transit countries of Colombia, Jordan, Mexico, and Turkey

墨西哥、土耳其、约旦和哥伦比亚是世界上两个最重要的被迫移民走廊——中东和美洲——的重要过境国。前两个国家处于一个微妙的位置，是强迫移民到美国和欧盟的瓶颈和检查站，另外两个国家近几十年来已成为强迫移民的相关过境国。一般来说，被迫移徙的挑战集中在全球南方和过境国，因为这些地方没有被选为最后到达国，但已成为到达理想目的地的不可避免的阶段。过境国往往没有办法提供适当的法律、经济和社会基础设施，以进行庇护程序、参与劳动力市场或使合法地位正规化。此外，移徙者未来的愿望往往因移徙过程而改变，并根据过境地的体制环境进行调整。所有这些因素都影响着移民的传记性项目——他们的路线，他们的中途停留，他们在旅途中每个点停留的时间，最后，他们想要的目的地。鉴于这些限制，被迫移民必须不断重新定义和发展他们的人生历程战略和传记项目，因为他们试图决定是留下、返回还是继续他们的旅程。在这个项目中，我们的目标是理解和解释影响被迫移民的传记项目和愿望的因素，因为他们做出了这些决定。我们提出了一个理论模型（称为VESPER），该模型考虑了移民在其迁移轨迹中的当前社会纠缠，他们过去的经历，他们的社会化价值观和态度，以及他们的偏好，期望和资源。我们的方法结合了混合数据收集：标准化的、以事件为导向的调查、对被迫移民的传记访谈、半结构化的专家访谈，以及对选定的过境移民地点的人种学访问。该项目有两个主要问题：1)被迫移民对未来生活的预测如何影响他们留下、返回或继续旅行的决定？2)当前的社会纠葛、过去的经历、社会化的价值观和态度、特定的偏好、期望和资源等因素如何影响这些传记项目？

Mexico, Turkey, Jordan and Colombia are crucial transit countries in two of the most important corridors of forced migration in the world: the Middle East and the Americas. The first two countries are in a delicate position as bottlenecks and checkpoints of forced migration to the USA and the UE, the other two have become relevant transit countries of forced migration in recent decades. In general, the challenges of forced migration concentrate in the global South and in transit countries as places that were not chosen as final countries of arrival but have become unavoidable stages to reach desired destinations. Countries of transit often do not have the means to offer the adequate legal, economic, and societal infrastructure for either asylum procedures, labor market participation, or regularization of legal status. Moreover, future aspirations of migrants are often modified due to migratory processes and adjusted to perceived institutional environments at places of transit. All these factors influence migrants’ biographical projects – their routes, their stop-overs, the length of stay at each point in their journey, and, finally, their desired destinations. Given these constraints, forced migrants constantly have to redefine and develop their life course strategies and biographical projects, as they try to decide whether to stay, return, or continue their journeys. In this project, we aim to understand and explain the factors that influence the biographical projects and aspirations of forced migrants as they make these decisions. We propose a theoretical model (called VESPER) that considers the current social entanglements of migrants in their migration trajectory, their past experiences, their socialized values and attitudes, as well as their preferences, expectations, and resources. Our methodology combines mixed data gathering: a standardized, event-oriented surveys, biographical interviews with forced migrants, semi-structured expert interviews, as well as ethnographic visits to selected sites of transit migration. The project has two leading questions: 1) How do forced migrants’ projections about their future life influence their decisions to stay, return, or continue their journey? And 2) How do the factors of current social entanglements, past experiences, socialized values and attitudes, specific preferences, expectations, and resources influence these biographical projects?