Heavy Precipitation Events in the Mediterranean: The Impact of Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Thermodynamic Lidar Profiles on the Analyses and Forecasts of the Pre-Convective Environment, Convection Initiation and Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation

水汽激光雷达网络同化(WaLiNeAS)项目涉及欧洲各地的几个研究机构。他们的专业知识结合在一起，以深入了解先进的热力学激光雷达系统网络对地中海强降水事件(HPE)的短期概率定量降水预报(PrQPF)的潜力。WaLiNeas观测网将从2022年9月初开始建立并运行三个月。这项建议旨在加入独特的WaLiNeas项目，并与其研究团队合作，利用霍恩海姆大学物理和气象研究所的大气拉曼温度和湿度探测仪(ARTHUS)进行热力学测量。此外，WaLiNeas的测量将被用于高级数据同化研究，以了解它们对对流前环境、对流启动和HPEs的预测的影响。这项提议的主要目标是调查以下假设：通过热力学拉曼激光雷达系统网络对地中海对流前环境的高级表示将导致1)对对流前环境以及对流启动的更准确的初始化和模拟，2)改善HPE的PrQPF。在WaLiNAS活动期间，将部署6个自主的水汽拉曼激光雷达系统，用于在整个密集观察期(IOP)进行连续测量。具体地说，我们将通过实现以下研究目标来检验我们的假设：i)基于WRF-NOAHMP模式系统，设计一个有效的区域、混合、基于集合的短期天气预报系统，用于预报地中海地区的HPEs；ii)通过同化WaLiNeas激光雷达网络的温度和湿度廓线，研究HPEs对流起始和PrQPF预报技术的改进，这些研究目标将为未来的数据同化策略和理解热力学激光雷达网络在极端事件短期预报中的重要性和密度铺平道路。这将是来自环境实验室、空间观测中心(LATMOS)、法国国家海洋和大气研究中心(CNRM)以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的科学家共同努力的成果。

The Water vapor Lidar Network Assimilation (WaLiNeAs) project involves several research institutes across Europe. Their expertise is combined to get an insight into the potential of a network of advanced thermodynamic lidar systems for short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PrQPF) of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the Mediterranean. The WaLiNeAs observation network will be set up and operated for three months from the beginning of September 2022. This proposal aims to join the unique WaLiNeAs project and to collaborate with its research team with respect to the performance of thermodynamic measurements using the Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS) of the Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM) at the University of Hohenheim. Furthermore, the WaLiNeAs measurements will be applied for advanced data assimilation studies with respect to their impact on the prediction of the pre-convective environment, convection initiation, and HPEs. The overarching goal of this proposal is to investigate the following hypotheses:An advanced representation of the pre-convective environment in the Mediterranean by a network of thermodynamic Raman lidar systems will lead to 1) a more accurate initialization and simulation of the pre-convective environment as well as convection initiation, 2) an improvement in PrQPF of HPEs.During the WaLiNeAs campaign, six autonomous water-vapor Raman lidar systems will be deployed for continuous measurements throughout the intensive observation periods (IOPs). All their data will be collected, disseminated, and monitored in real-time.Specifically, we will examine our hypotheses by attaining the following research objectives: I) Design an efficient regional, hybrid, ensemble-based, short-range weather forecast system for predicting HPEs in the Mediterranean region based on the WRF-NOAHMP model system, II) investigate the improvement of the forecast skill with respect to convection initiation and PrQPF of HPEs by data assimilation of temperature and humidity profiles from the WaLiNeAs lidar network, and III) analyze the ARTHUS data and derive moisture and temperature statistics during the experiment.These research objectives will pave the way for future data assimilation strategies and understanding of the importance and density of thermodynamic lidar networks for short-range forecasting of extreme events. This will be a joint effort of scientists from Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (LATMOS), the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) in France, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the USA.