How to Reduce the Investment Dilemma? - A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of International Electricity Market Designs

大约15年来，国际电力市场一直在进行结构调整。在这个研究项目中，我们的目标是确定电力市场设计的潜在改进。我们专注于分析这些系统如何创造机会和激励措施，以减少投资困境。如果对发电能力的基本投资被严重拖延，就会出现这种困境，因为价格信号并不表明长期的发电能力短缺。在这个项目中，我们分析了基于市场和监管的解决方案，以减少投资困境。关于基于市场的解决方案，我们打算分析和评估远期市场的价格信号。因此，我们开发了一个现货市场模型，考虑到电力价格的特殊性。为了得到动态的投资组合，以对冲特定的投资风险，我们评估的基础上，现货市场模型的合适的衍生品（特别是奇异期权）的价格。在监管干预方面，我们专注于研究欧洲二氧化碳排放权交易计划，作为创造投资激励的新机会，例如通过有效的免费配额分配系统。

For about 15 years, a restructuring of international electricity markets has been taking place. In this research project, we aim to identify potential improvements for electricity market designs. We concentrate on analysing how these systems create opportunities and incentives for reducing the investment dilemma. Such a dilemma exists if essential investments in generating capacity are delayed significantly, because price signals do not indicate a long-run shortfall of capacity. In this project, we analyse both market-based and regulatory solutions for reducing the investment dilemma.With respect to market-based solutions, we intend to analyse and evaluate price signals in the forward market. Therefore, we develop a spot market model that considers the particular characteristics of electricity prices. In order to derive dynamic portfolios for hedging specific investment risks, we evaluate the prices of suitable derivatives (especially exotic options) on the basis of the spot market model. With respect to regulatory interventions, we concentrate on investigating the European CO2-alIowance trading scheme as a new opportunity for creating investment incentives, for instance through efficient systems of free allowance-allocation.