A Comprehensive Research on Reliability Anslysis and Drought Control of Water Resources Systems under the Conditions of Global Warming

本研究旨在通过径流模拟分析(i)全球变暖条件下的可利用水资源，（ii）评估水量、水质和安全的可靠性因子，（iii）应对气候变化和干旱的高可靠性水资源系统，（iv）实时干旱预测和控制，以减少干旱危害。针对降雪区、非降雪区和降雪区-融雪区应用气候，建立了几种网格型多层径流模型。根据离散化后的温度水平，用非降水期、降水期和降水强度的概率分布函数生成降水。采用当前流量、当前温度、通常需水量和以往流量的线性回归模型预测实际日需水量。由于温度上升3℃的模拟降水减少到94%左右，而gcm的降水增加10%，则使降水增加到114%。流量随降水量的增加而增加。降雪区3 ~ 5月的径流量因融雪提前而减少。从水运的工作成本、蓄水设备的购买成本、缺水的安全成本等用水角度来评价水线线的收费，即可用的排水顺序。此外，还引入了等效值的概念来估算干旱灾害。最后，结合长期天气预报和分类水文资料，运用模糊理论提出了水库实时调度方案。采用模糊推理的方法确定运营策略，称为基于知识的决策支持系统。

The aim of this research is to analyze (i) the available water resources through run-off simulation under the conditions of global warming, (ii) the reliability factor to evaluate water quantity, quality and safety, (iii) water resources system with high reliability against climate change and drought, (iv) the real-time drought prediction and control to reduce the drought damage. The several mesh-typed multi-layr run-off models are formulated for the applied climate of snow-fall zone, non-snow-fall zone and snow-fall-snow-melt zone. The precipitation is generated with the probability distribution functions of non-precipitation period, precipitation period and precipitation intensity according to the discretized temperature levels. The actual daily water demand is predicted with the linear regression model of current discharge, current temperature, usual water demand and previous discharge. As the simulated precipitation with temperature rise of 3 degree centigrate is reduced to be about 94%, the precipitation is increased to be 114% for matching precipitation increase of 10% by GCMs. The discharge is found to be increased with precipitation increase. For snow-fall region, the discharge from March to May will decrease because of early snow-melt. The charge of hydrograph, in other words, available discharge sequence is evaluated from the viewpoint of water use such as working cost of water transport, buying cost of storage equipment, safety cost for water shortage and so on. Moreover, the equivalent value concept is introduced to estimate the drought damage. Finally the realtime reservoir operation is proposed with fuzzy theory by combining the long-term weather forecast and classified hydrographs. The operation strategy is decided with fuzzy inference method called as knowledgebased decision support system.