Improvement of Road Network Reliability with Traffic Management

对于交通管理和新道路建设，道路规划程序要求现有道路网性能水平的指标，以解释新交通管理和新道路建设所带来的便利。传统的指标可以是定量的，也可以是静态的，如单位面积道路总里程或平均行驶时间。现在需要一个新的指标来反映公路网的质量和性能的稳定性，本研究提出将公路网可靠性作为公路网管理和建设的新指标。首先，讨论了路网可靠性的意义和提高可靠性的好处。其次，研究了终端可靠性和链路可靠性的估计方法。此外，还阐明了OD流量变化对路段流量变化的传播机制。最后，对一个实际路网进行了引入交通管理前后的可靠性分析。

For traffic management and new road construction, the road planning procedure requires indicators of present road network performance level for explaining the convenience derived from the new traffic management and the construction of new roads. The conventional indicators are quantitative or static such as the total length of road per unit area or average travel time. Now a new indicator reflecting the quality of a road network and steadiness of its performance is required.This study proposes the reliability of road networks as a new indicator for road network management and construction. First, the significance of road network reliability and the benefits of increasing reliability are discussed. Next, methods for estimating terminal reliability and link reliability are studied. In addition, the propagation mechanism of OD flow variation to link flow variation is clarified. Finally, reliability analyzes before and after the introduction of traffic management are studied for an actual road network.