MACROECONOMIC STUDY OF TRADE DEFICITS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY : THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS USING DIRECTION OF TRADE STATISTICS

在这个项目中，我们首先考虑美国经济能否同时解决她的三重困境；即产出停滞、政府赤字和对外贸易失衡。本文利用两国梅茨勒收入-贸易模型，考察了协调支出政策的效果，即政府在盈余时刺激支出，在赤字时减少支出。结果表明，两国国内需求的完全协调双边增长恶化了贸易不平衡。还考虑了为外国商人开放国内市场的协调政策的影响。所得结论推广到N个国家的情况。接下来，我们考察了一个基于a.k.t dutt的简单南北贸易模型，其中北方出口资本货物，南方出口物质货物。研究了北方生产中引入技术变革减少物质投入的影响，结果表明，均衡利润率可能会下降，这与OKISHIO关于技术变革的定理似乎是矛盾的。第三，利用IMF贸易统计方向进行实证研究，将世界经济重新划分为日本、北美、欧洲、大洋洲、新兴市场国家和东盟六个相关区域。1985年9月“广场协议”的影响在日本、欧洲和大洋洲明显可见，但在其他地区却没有那么有效。本文利用1980年至1992年的年度数据，对六个地区的出口、国内生产总值和汇率之间的关系进行了一些研究。最后，对阪神地震灾区的微观经济问题进行了分析。由于日元升值，日本经济的老龄化和去工业化进程使情况更加恶化。审议了与受灾地区就业有关的一些政策建议。

In this project, first we considered whether the U.S.economy can simultaneously resolve her triple dilemma ; i.e.the output stagnation, the government deficits and the foreign trade imbalances. Using a two-country Metzlerian income-trade model, we investigated the effects of the coordinating spending policies, i.e.the government stimulates its spendings when it is in surplus and decreases them in deficits. It is shown that the exactly coordinated bilateral increases of domestic demands in both countries deteriorate trade imbalances. The effects of coordination policy opening domestic markets for foreign traders are also considered. The conclusions obtained are extended to N countries case.Next, we examined a simple North-South trade model based on A.K.Dutt, where the North exports capital goods and the South exports material goods. The effects of introducing technical changes reducing material inputs in the North production are examined and it is shown that the equilibrium rate of profit may decrease, which is seemingly paradoxical to OKISHIO theorem on technical change.Thirdly, the empirical studies using Direction of Trade Statistics of IMF are made by regrouping the world economy into six relevant regions, i.e. Japan, North America, Europe, Oceania, NIEs and ASEAN.The effects of the September 1985 "Plaza Accord" are apparently traced in Japan, Europe and Oceania, but are not so effective in other regions. Some studies on relations among exports, GDP and exchange rates of six regions are presented using annual data from 1980 to 1992.Finally, we considered the microeconomic problems taking up the disastrous area in HANSHIN earthquake. The progress of aging and de-industrialization of Japanese economy due to yen appreciation makes the situation worse. Some policy proposals relating employment in the suffered area are considered.