High-resolution multiscale modelling of pandemics: COVID-19 and beyond

该项目旨在开发用于大流行缓解和控制的高分辨率计算模型，重点关注新型冠状病毒及其新出现的变体，并利用人口统计学，基因组学和流行病学数据。其预期将严格比较复杂疫苗接种及社交距离策略的多尺度效应，并量化COVID-19引发的不确定性下的最佳应对措施。预期的成果包括计算模型，以了解最具传染性的病毒变异如何在干预措施存在的情况下出现和传播，如何预测疫情，以及哪些是最脆弱的社区。这应该会产生重大的经济和社会影响，改善人口健康，同时保持经济的弹性。

The project aims to develop high-resolution computational models for pandemic mitigation and control, focussing on the novel coronavirus and its emerging variants, and leveraging demographic, genomic and epidemiological data. It expects to rigorously compare multi-scale effects of complex vaccination and social distancing strategies and quantify optimal responses under the COVID-19 induced uncertainty. The intended outcomes include computational models of how the most infectious viral variants emerge and spread in presence of interventions, how to predict the outbreaks, and which are the most vulnerable communities. This should make a significant economic and social impact, improving population health while maintaining a resilient economy.