Establishing the Evaluation Model for the Ecological Systems in Oil Pollution

油类污染是造成海洋环境污染的主要原因，主要发生在油轮在泊位装卸时，以及油轮碰撞和海上事故。在事件发生后，由于自然的延迟和防止石油扩散的制度选择错误，导致石油大规模扩散，对生态系统造成破坏，对当地居民的社会经济平衡造成困扰。因此，需要对油品污染防治体系及其效果进行评价。由于海洋生态系统是一个非常复杂的问题，其状态随时间变化的因素很多，因此建立了基于系统动力学的动态模拟分析模型，考虑了浮游植物、浮游动物、碎屑、溶解氧等因素对海洋生态系统的影响。以广岛渔业实验站报告的广岛湾内的海洋食物链为例，采用动态模拟模型对其进行了分析。该模型的数值结果受油样性质的影响很大，如油样的毒性、油的乳化率等。此外，还需要考虑海湾外部的环境影响、风化、油污扩散等因素。

Oil pollution is a major contributor for the marine environment, it occurs mainly during the loading / unloading of tankers at berth and due to tanker collisions and accidents at sea.In the after such an event, natural delays and the wrong choice of systems to prevent the oil spread cause a large scale diffusion of oil, causing damage to the ecological systems and trouble to the socio-economic balance of local residents. So the oil pollution prevention systems and their efficacy are needed to be evaluated.The ecological systems at sea is regarded as an very complicated problem due to the many factors of which condition change with time passes, the dynamical simulation analysis model based on the system dynamics is constructed, of which the condition due to plant plankton, a zooplankton, detritus, dissolved oxygen and so on, is considered.As a practical example, a food chain at sea referring the date of Hiroshima bay by report of a fisheries experiment station at Hiroshima is analyzed by the dynamical simulation model. The numerical results of this model are remarkably affected depend on the conditions of the nature of oil sample, for example of poisonous character, a ratio of emulsification of oil, and so on. It is also necessary to reconsider the environmental effects from outside of the bay, weathering, the diffusion by oil pollution.