The Effects of APEC Trade and Investment Liberalization on Structural and Employment Adjustments : A CGE Model Analysis

这项研究利用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型对APEC贸易和投资自由化对实际GDP、结构和就业调整的影响进行了数值模拟分析。与2000-2020年间不假设贸易自由化的基线情景相比，APEC发达成员和发展中成员的实际GDP预计到2020年将分别增加420亿美元和830亿美元。在日本，农业和加工食品等劳动密集型行业的产出和就业将收缩，而机械、运输设备、金属和产品等资本密集型行业的产出和就业将扩大。在东盟国家，不仅劳动密集型部门的产出和就业将扩大，机械等一些先进部门的产出和就业也将扩大。包含外国直接投资(FDI)的模型的模拟结果表明，FDI自由化对除日本以外的所有APEC经济体带来的好处都比贸易自由化更大。在制造业方面，贸易和外国直接投资在亚太经合组织区域是相辅相成的。换言之，贸易自由化导致流入和流出的外国直接投资存量增加，外国直接投资自由化导致制造业贸易流量增加。

This research provides numerical simulation analysis of the impact of APEC trade and investment liberalization on real GDP, structural and employment adjustments using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.Real GDP of developed and developing APEC members is predicted to increase by $42 billion and $83 billion, respectively, by the year 2020 from trade liberalization, compared with the baseline scenario where no trade liberalization is assumed during 2000-2020. In Japan, output and employment of labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture and processed food would contract, whereas those of capital-intensive sectors such as machinery, transportation equipment, and metals and products would expand. In ASEAN countries, output and employment of not only labor-intensive sectors but also some advanced sectors such as machinery are predicted to expand.The simulation results from the model that incorporates foreign direct investment (FDI) suggest that FDI liberalization would bring about greater benefits than trade liberalization to all the APEC economies with the exception of Japan. In the manufacturing sector, trade and FDI are found to be complements in the APEC regions. In other words, trade liberalization leads to an increase in the inward and outward FDI stocks, and FDI liberalization leads to an increase in trade flows of manufactures.