Characteristics of Policy Making under the Coalition Government Transformation of the LDP Power Structure

1993年推出的“政治改革”通过削弱自民党内部派系的权力，给日本政治带来了两种相互矛盾的趋势。虽然他们加强了自民党高层管理人员的领导，但他们加强了个别议员相对于自民党高层领导的自主权。很难预测哪一种趋势最终会在未来占据主导地位。这两个重要因素将决定未来的权力结构。其一是自民党是否需要公明党的支持才能继续执政。如果联合政府不可或缺，那么党领导层将保持对政策制定的强大控制力。另一个因素是自70年代中期以来反复出现的民粹主义。杰出的民粹主义领导人包括细川护熙、菅直人、桥本龙太郎、加藤光一和小泉纯一郎。他们的核心支持基础是城市中产阶级，尤其是家庭主妇和年轻白领。在他们的支持下，这些民粹主义领导人在新自由主义处方的基础上开始了雄心勃勃的改革尝试。这些政治家的生存取决于这些改革的成败。从长远来看，这也将决定自民党和日本政治的权力结构。

The 'political reforms' introduced in 1993 brought two mutually contradictory trends into Japanese politics through weakening the power of factions within the Liberal Democratic Party. While they have strengthened the leadership of the LDP top executives, they have strengthened the autonomy of individual Dietmembers vis-a-vis the LDP top leadership. It is difficult to predict which trend would eventually be predominant in the future. The two factors are important that would determine the future power structure. One is whether or not the LDP needs support of Komeito in order to remain in power. If the coalition is indispensable, the party leadership would maintain strong control over the handling the policy making. The other factor is populism which has repeatedly emerged since the mid-seventies. The prominent populist leaders are, among others, Morihiro Hosokawa, Naoto Kan, Ryutaro Hashimoto, Koichi Kato and Jun'ichiro Koizumi. The core of their support base is urban middle class, particularly the house wives and young white collar workers. With their support, these populist leaders have embarked ambitious reform attempts on the basis of neo-liberal prescriptions. The survival of these politicians depend on the success or failure of these reforms. In the long run, it would also determine the power structure of the LDP and of Japanese politics in general.