Research of Methodological Assistance for Socio-Economic Policy Planning in Depopulation Society

日本所有城市的基本社会结构预测模型都是在2003年底之前开发的，使用的是社会结构预测模型2000。通过对预测数据的分析，我们改进了一种通用的人口预测模型，对日本所有城市和乡村的未来人口结构进行了预测。调查结果已在Web上向管理员和研究人员公开：http://www.grips.ac.jp/depopulation。Matsutani A.开发了一个估算日本国民收入的宏观经济预测模型，他在Harrod和Domer模型上增加了投资限制，并报告称日本的国民收入将在2012年达到最大值，2000年的人均国民收入将保持到2030年。我们开发了一个人口对城市吸引力的函数，并将城市类型分为九类。该功能安装在社会结构投影模型中。所有城市、城镇和村庄的投影数据都使用地理相关信息打印系统转换为量子色，并绘制了To-Do-Fu-Ken结构地图并于2004年出版。在国家和地区政府的许多理事会、专题讨论会和讲习班上讨论了人口减少社会的基本问题，这些问题与我们的问题有关，包括经济、劳动力、福利、保健和养老金、包括农业在内的工业、区域发展、外国劳动力等。从技术民主的角度来看，这些研究结果并没有发表研究论文，而是在网上发表。2005年社会结构预测引擎的基本部分已经开发完成，改进了2000年模型，并应用了2005年人口普查，并在2006财政年度结束时公布了todo - fuken人口预测。

Fundamental society structure projection models of all Japan cities had been developed until the end of 2003, using Society Structure Projection Model 2000.Analyzing the projection data, we improved a population projection mode, which was applicable in general purpose, and projected future population structure of all cities and villages of Japan. The results had been opened to administrators and researchers on Web: http;//www3.grips.ac.jp/ depopulation.A macroeconomic projection model for estimating Japan national income had been developed by Matsutani A. He added restriction of investment to Harrod and Domer model and reported that the national income of Japan would become maximum in 2012 and the amount of national income per capita in 2000 would maintain until 2030.We developed a function of attractiveness of population to a city and classified city types into nine categories. The function was installed in the Society Structure Projection Model.Projected data of all cities, towns and villages were converted into quantum color using the Geographically Related Information Printing System and maps of To-Do-Fu-Ken structure were painted and published in 2004.Essential problems of depopulation society have been discussed in many councils, symposia and workshops of national and regional governments related to our issues that were including economy, labor force, welfare, health care and pension, industries including agriculture, regional development, foreign workforce, and etc. Those research results were presented on the Web instead of research papers from the standpoint of techno-democracy.Basic part of Society Structure Projection Engine 2005 has been developed improving the 2000 model and applying 2005 census and To-Do-Fu-Ken population projections have been announced in the end of 2006 fiscal year.