Studies on the Transmission model for Echinococcus multilocularis and its simulations

多房棘球绦虫引起人类泡状棘球绦虫。在日本，整个北海道都报告了狐狸种群中多房棘球绦虫的高流行率。因此，已经采取了诸如猎狐和分发含有吡喹酮的诱饵等控制措施。这项研究开发了狐狸种群中个体的传播模型，并包括一个随机感染过程来评估多房棘球绦虫的流行率。为了使我们的模型更切合实际，我们使用了狐狸种群中每个个体的蠕虫负担。我们假设，蠕虫负担取决于捕食性田鼠体内原头节的数量和感染经历的数量。我们对日本北海道小水町和札幌市的情况进行了1000次随机模拟。用该模型计算得到的狐狸幼虫负担分布与解剖数据吻合。模拟表明，为了有效地分发含有吡喹酮的诱饵，必须谨慎选择季节。多房线虫的随机模型可以评估其在狐狸种群中的流行范围，这将有助于分析其复杂的生活史，并有助于制定防治策略。

Echinococcus multilocularis causes human alveolar echinococcus. In Japan, high prevalence of E. multilocularis among the fox population has been reported throughout Hokkaido. Accordingly, control measures, such as fox hunting and the distribution of bait containing Praziquantel, have been conducted. This study developed a transmission model for individuals in the fox population and included a stochastic infection process to assess the prevalence of E. multilocularis. To make our model realistic, we used the worm burden for each individual in the fox population. We assumed that the worm burden depends on the number of protoscoleces in a predated vole and the number of infection experiences. We carried out stochastic simulations with 1000 trials for the situations of Koshimizu and Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan. The distribution of the worm burden among foxes obtained using the model agreed with dissection data. The simulation indicates that a careful choice of season is necessary for an effective distribution of Praziquantel-containing bait. A stochastic model for E. multilocularis, which can assess the range of the prevalence in the fox population, would be helpful in analyzing their complex life-cycle and also in designing control strategies.