Development of Integrated Forecasting System of Trade and Traffic Flow and Policy Evaluation for International Transport Infrastructure in the era of Economic Integration in Asia

我们的研究成果如下：1)开发了多地区国际投入产出表，特别是以日本和中国为重点；2)将1)中开发的I-O表纳入现有的贸易预测模型(即GTAP模型)，考察了自贸协定、基础设施投资等国际经济和运输政策对中日两国各地区的影响。3)根据各种商品在货物单价和运输方式上的份额特征对商品进行了分类。4)建立了国际海上货流模型。5)分析了东亚地区国际滚装船运输的可能性。6)建立了国际客流模型。7)通过扩展和应用4)中建立的模型，对中国和湄公河地区的国际运输政策进行了模拟。通过贸易预测模型的建立、国际货流模型的建立、模型的集成等一系列研究，以及政策模拟与分析，定量衡量自贸协定等国际经济政策和基础设施投资等国际运输政策对包括日本在内的东亚各国贸易和运输流动格局的影响的综合体系。

Our research results are as follows;1) Multi-regional International Input-Output Table was developed, especially focusing in Japan and China.2) By incorporating the developed I-O Table in 1) into existing trade forecasting model (i.e. GTAP model), impacts of various international economic and transport polices such as FTA and infrastructure investment on each Japanese and Chinese region were measured.3) Commodities were classified based on each commodity's characteristics on unit price of cargo and share by transport mode.4) International maritime cargo flow model was developed.5) Possibility of international RORO ship transport in East Asia was analyzed.6) International passenger flow model was developed.7) By extending and applying the model developed in 4), international transport policy simulations were examined for China and Mekong River Area.Throughout this series of researches such as model development for trade forecasting and international freight flow, integration of these models, and policy simulation and analyses, the integrated system to measure impacts quantitatively of international economic policies such as FTA and international transport policies such as infrastructure investment on trade and transport flow pattern for each country in East Asia including Japan.