Comparative Study on International Agricultural Trade Policy

本文构建了定量评价农业支持政策的部分均衡模型。应用该模型，对近期国际玉米市场价格上涨的影响因素进行了分析。正如人们常说的那样，影响玉米价格上涨的因素是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国等欠发达国家的人口快速增长和经济增长。此外，发达国家的生物乙醇政策也产生了影响。我们定量地估计了这些因素的贡献。我们通过构建的模型表明，由于欠发展国家经济的快速增长和发达国家的生物乙醇政策导致的玉米衍生需求的增加不足以解释最近国际玉米价格飙升的原因。我们的模型生成的玉米价格与实际观察到的价格之间存在很大一部分差异。我们的模型无法解释的残差可以通过投机行为来判断。由于我们没有深入考虑这个剩余，我们需要在不久的将来进一步解决这个问题。与发达国家的生物乙醇政策一样，发达国家采取的农业支持政策也影响着欠发展中国家的经济。我们通过社会会计矩阵乘数分析来估计国际价格波动的影响。我们把老挝和柬埔寨作为目标，因为这两个国家是亚洲最贫穷的国家，减贫是当务之急。对这些国家的投入产出表也进行了估计。

Partial equilibrium model for evaluating agricultural support policies quantitatively was constructed in this study. As an application of the model, the analysis of the factors affecting recent international price increase in corn market is conducted. As is often said, the factors affecting the corn price increase are rapid population growth and economic growth in less developed countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. In addition, bio-ethanol policy in developed countries are affecting as well. We estimate the contribution of these factors quantitatively.We clarify by our constructing model that the increase in derived demand for corn due to the rapid economic growth in less developing countries and the bio-ethanol policy in developed countries are not enough reasons to explain the recent skyrocket in international corn price. There is a large portion of difference between the generated corn price from our model and the actual observed price. The residual that our model cannot account for might be judged as an effect by the speculating behavior. Since we did not make deep consideration for this residual, we need to tackle this topic further in near future.Like the bio-ethanol policies of developed countries, agricultural support policies adopted in advanced countries also affect the economy in less developing countries. We estimate the impact of international price fluctuation by the Social Accounting Matrix multiplier analysis. We take Laos and Cambodia as objectives, since these countries are poorest in Asian countries and the poverty reduction is an immediate problem to be solved. The Input-Output Tables for these countries are estimated as well.