Dynamic models of spatial migration behavior and processes of settlement formation

本文提出了一种将观测到的迁移距离与计算机模拟得到的随机迁移距离进行标准化的方法。该方法对不同地区进行纵向研究和比较分析。利用该方法对福井市的城市内和区域迁移距离进行了分析。分析得出如下结论：迁移距离与年龄之间的关系存在波动。城市内移徙和城市外移徙以及男性移徙和女性移徙之间的波动模式不同。“引力效应”（人口规模和距离衰减的产物）很好地解释了迁移距离，但并不总是如此。至于年轻人的区域迁移，“随机效应”（所有的迁移都是随机发生的）显著地解释了距离。应该建立新的空间迁移行为动力学模型，而不是从重力模型中推导出来的。

I propose a method to standardize observed migration distances in comparing with random migration distances obtained by computer simulation. This method makes longitudinal studies and comparative analysis between different regions. Using this method, intra-urban and regional migration distance are analyzed in Fukui City. The analysis gives us following remarks : there are fluctuations in the relation between migration distances and ages. The modes of fluctuation are different between the in- and out-migrations and the intra-urban migration, as well as between male and female migrants. "Gravity effect" (the product of population size and distance decay) explains the migration distances very well, but, not always. As for the regional-migration by young men, "random effect" (all migrations occur randomly) explains the distances significantly. New dynamic models of spatial migration behavior, which are not derived from gravity models, should be constructed.