Dynamic spatial modeling of movement patterns by urban migrants

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This research project aims to formulate a dynamic spatial model of urban migrants in space from the viewpoint of random-walk. This formulation means to understand the conventional gravity model for inter-urban migrations from the probabilistic viewpoint. For the formulation, it is inevitable to define the effects of limited space in which migrants move, and purely behavioral characteristics of migrants : the former is referred to as "spatial configuration." In order to formulate the model, field survey and numerical analysis were employed to examine migration patterns in Perth, Australia, and Fukui and other Japanese cities.(1) In the field survey conducted in Perth, Australia, statistics of AU national census, maps, governmental materials of urban planning and housing markets etc. were collected at statistical and planning offices and Library of University of Western Australia and public libraries. With respect to typical migration careers of the central-district residents and suburba … More n residents, discussion was done with geographers of WA University.(a) Based on non-aggregated data of residential shifts recorded by Fukui municipal office (1998-2001) and aggregated migration data of National Census (whole Japan, Fukui, Tokyo, and Akita), frequencies and spatial patterns of intra-urban and inter-urban migrations by different age-groups were analyzed. Mobility and their changes with age, and migration distance and direction indicated were affected by gender differences, and also different between metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions. (b) Simulation experiments were carried out to know migration patterns and their outcomes under the probabilistic conditions, i.e., continuous and homogeneous space and random movement by migrants. For all movements, their origins and destinations were plotted on a map to read spatial distributions of migrants, and the distance and direction were measured. Results from this research suggest a dynamic model of human migration behavior in a space, and a stochastic process model of settlement formation. Less