Migration and Labor Market in China : Has Chinese Economy Passed the Lewis's Turning Point?

(1)我们于2008年和2009年分别在朱江三角洲9个城市和上海进行了一次关于外来务工人员就业、工资和生活状况的大型问卷调查。通过调查，我们开发了大量的原始数据。同时收集了中国的人口普查、农业普查等官方数据。在调研中发现，中国劳动力市场供求的社会经济条件正在发生变化，劳动力无限供给确实变得更加困难。然而，我们不能仅以此来解释刘易斯在《中国》中的转折。在涉及农村和农民的基本政策，以及就业、工资和社会保障方面，正在发生一场灾难，并对劳动力市场产生强烈影响。存在于城乡二元结构中的户籍壁垒和大城市二元劳动力市场的壁垒越来越低，个人能力和努力的作用日益重要。如果进一步纠正许多制度缺陷，农业剩余劳动力可能得到有效利用，劳动力对经济增长的制约也将得到缓解。

(1)We carried out a large scale questionnaire which is about the employment, wage and life of the temporary migrants in nine cities of the Zhu Jiang delta in 2008, and another one in shanghai in 2009. By the surveys, we developed a lot of primary data. At the same time, we collected some official data such as the population census and the Agriculture Census of China. Through these, the database for this research has been built.(2) We found in the research that the social and economic conditions of the supply and demand on the labor market in China are changing, and the unlimited labor supply is really becoming more difficult. However, we cannot explain the Lewis's turning point in China only by that. In the fundamental policies about the rural and peasants, and the employment, wages, and social security, a diastrophism is occurring, and has a strong impact on the labor market. All of these factors must be taken into consideration also.(3) The wall of the household registration (hukou) which is existing in the dual structure of rural-urban, and the dual labor market in the large cities, becomes low, and the role of individual's ability and effort is becoming important. If correction of the defect of many institutions is performed further, the agricultural surplus labor may be effectively used, and the labor restrictions to economic growth will also be eased.