A quantitative analysis of the role of the international financial market during emerging market crises

本文将经济周期核算方法a la Chari，Kehoe and McGritan(2007)应用于一个标准的新古典小型开放经济模型，并对香港、韩国和泰国的经济危机进行了评估。量化结果表明，在所有国家中，生产效率的扭曲都是导致产出突然崩溃的重要原因，而投资和国际金融市场的扭曲则不重要。在具有国际金融摩擦对全要素生产率的内生反馈的模型中，国际金融摩擦可以解释产出下降的原因。

This paper applies the business cycle accounting method a la Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) to a standard neoclassical small open economy model and assesses the economic crises in Hong Kong, Korea and Thailand. Quantitative results show that distortions in production efficiency are important in all countries in accounting for the sudden output collapses while distortions in the investment and international financial markets are not. International financial frictions can account for the drop in output in a model with endogenous feedback from international financial frictions onto total factor productivity.