Consumption Explosion and the Domestic-Demand-Led Growth in Emerging Asian Large Economies

在中国和印度等快速发展的亚洲，中产阶级的出现对这些经济体的增长机制产生了重大影响。本研究首先考察了日本在1960年代的历史情况，作为比较的尺度。阐明了消费结构的典型变化及其对生产结构的影响。其次，根据文献综述和笔者在国内的实地调查，对我国的中产阶级进行了界定。在此基础上，利用住户调查数据，分析了消费结构的变化。利用这些信息，通过投入产出分析模拟了消费模式变化的影响。结果表明，中国对国内产品的需求有增加的可能性，这反过来又表明中国的增长模式将从出口主导型转向出口和内需共同主导型。对印度也做了类似的研究，但变化和影响还没有中国那么大。由于现有数据未能很好地反映最近的变化，因此对生产结构的影响并不明确。

The emergence of middle class in rapidly developing Asia such as China and India gives a large impact to the growth mechanism of those economies. The present study first examined the historical case of Japan in the 1960s as a measure for comparison. It clarified the typical change of consumption pattern and the impact to the production structure. Next, the middle class in China was defined according to literature survey and the field surveys by the author in China. Based on this definition, the change of consumption pattern was found out using the data from the household surveys. This information was used to simulate the impact of changing consumption pattern by input-output analysis. The result indicated the possibility of increase of demand for domestic goods, which in turn shows that China's growth pattern will shift from export-led to both export and domestic demand led growth. Similar study was done for India, but the change and the impact is not yet as large as China. The impact to production structure is not giving clear result since the available data is not well reflecting the recent change.