Empirical analysis on budget deficit, government debt, and long-term interest rates.

在本项目中，我们将重新分析预算赤字和政府债务对日本真实的长期利率的影响。结果发现：（1）日本国债收益率对泡沫破灭后的18项经济对策中的6项反应积极，其中4项反映了泡沫破灭后的经济对策 主权风险，（2）预算赤字/GDP增加1%，利率上升26-34个基点。另外还有按 该项目补充研究表明，紧缩的银行对贷款的态度和不良财务状况， 政府状况减弱了财政扩张的需求促进效应。

In this project, we re-analyze the effect of budget deficits and government debt on real long-term interest rates in Japan. As the results, we found (1)the JGB yields responded positively to six of eighteen economic countermeasures after the bubble burst and four of the six cases reflected the sovereign risks,(2)1% increase in budget deficits/GDP raise the rates by 26-34 bps. In addition, a supplementary study in this project showed that tight banks' attitude toward lending and bad financial condition of the government weakened the demand-enhancing effects of fiscal expansion.