Commuter Demand Concentration Model Based on a Time-Space Network Scheme

在东京地区，也需要发展铁路能力和分散需求，以缓解高峰时间的拥堵。为了评估这些措施的效果，本研究以OD表和铁路通行能力为输入数据，以各时段、各区间的上下车人数和通过人数为结果，对东京都复杂的铁路网进行简化，并以简化后的铁路网为基础，对输入数据、OD表和铁路通行能力数据进行修正，从而估算出模型的计算时间。为了表达通勤者的出行时间选择，网络路段费用函数考虑了拥挤率（为了应用“流相关分配”）和工作系统，因此，该模型给出了每个区域关于时间的高精度需求。最后，利用该模型，我们可以预测未来的铁路需求，考虑到工作系统和铁路能力的可能变化。

In the Tokyo area, development of railway capacity and dispersion of demand are also needed to relieve congestion in peak time. In order to evaluate the effects of these measures, this study estimates a model which uses OD tables, railway capacity as input data and gives boarding, alighting and passing number person, at each time and at each zone as result.In order to shorten calculation time, this model simplified the complicated Tokyo railway network, and modified input data, OD tables and railway capacity data, based on a simplified railway network. To express commuters' travel time selection, network link cost functions considered congestion rate (in order to apply 'flow dependent assignment') and working system.As a result, this model gives us the demand at each zone with respect to time with high accuracy. Finally, using this model, we can make a forecast for the railway demand in the future, considering possible changes in the working system and railway capacity.