Research on Informatization of Industries and its Effects on Performances since 1985 : An Empirical Analysis including International Comparisons

在美国，所谓的“生产率悖论”自20世纪80年代末的S以来就一直在讨论。然而，美国的经济表现自90年代初的S以来经历了长达9年的经济繁荣，这一讨论似乎已经结束。但是，在日本，主要是由于长期的经济低迷，即使是私营公司的高管也面临着一个非常困难的决定问题，他们是否应该投资IT(信息技术)。在本研究中，我们首先分析了日本产业信息化的现状，然后分析了信息技术对各个行业生产力的影响。在分析中，我们界定了“信息化投资”、“信息化股票”及其“松弛”的概念，并利用工信部官方公布的数据对其进行了估计。并运用增长核算和EDA(包络数据分析)方法对新定义的数据进行分析，得出以下初步结论：(1)在纺织、纸浆、机械等7个行业中，信息化投资在1990-94年间没有促进生产率的提高；(2)在同一时期，有几个行业出现了信息化资本匮乏的现象，这意味着这些行业存在效率低下。从这些初步结论来看，我们可以说，在日本，至少在1994年之前，“生产率悖论”在许多行业中盛行。金融和保险业是个例外，因为至少在1988-89年间，该行业享受到了由于信息化投资而提高的生产率。

In the United States, the so-called "Productivity Paradox" has been discussed since the late 1980's. U.S. economic performance, however, has experienced a 9-year long economic boom since early 1990's, and the discussions seem to end these days. But, in Japan, mainly due to a prolonged economic slump, even top executives of private companies are now facing a very difficult decision problem whether they should invest in IT (Information Technology) or not.In this research; we first analyzed present situations of informatization of industries in Japan, and then effectiveness of IT on productivity industry by industry. In the analysis, we defined concepts of "Informatized Investment," "Informatized Stock," and its "Slack", and estimated them by making use of MITI's officially published data. And, applying methods of growth accounting and EDA (Envelope Data Analysis) to the newly defined data, we have reached tentative conclusions as follows : (1) in 7 industries including Textile, Pulp and Paper, machine r y, Informatized investment did not contribute increase in productivity during 1990-94, (2) during the same period, Slacks on Inforrnatized capital were observed in several industries, which means that inefficiencies existed in these industries.From these tentative conclusions, we can say that, in Japan, "Productivity Paradox" prevailed in many industries at least until 1994. The exception is the case of Finance and Insurance industry in the sense that industry enjoyed the increase in productivity due to Informatized Investment at least during 1988-89.