Study on Recent Floods and Droughts in Southeast Asia and the Pacific

对1990年代S在东南亚和太平洋地区发生的水旱灾害进行了调查和分析，以期对该地区的防灾管理有所裨益。这项研究是通过联合国教科文组织国际水文计划(IHP)的亚太FRIEND(来自国际实验和网络数据的水流状态)与东南亚和太平洋国家的许多研究人员合作进行的。以下是精选的调查结果清单。这份报告以及1999年3月23-25日在河内举行的关于1990年代的ENSO、东南亚和太平洋的洪涝干旱及1990年代的S(国际水文计划东南亚和太平洋区域指导委员会和越南国际水文计划全国委员会)的亚太之友联合研讨会的会议纪要。1990年代的S洪水不仅发生在易发洪水的温暖潮湿地区，而且还发生在美国、加拿大、欧洲、朝鲜半岛，甚至干旱和东南亚…。更干旱的地区，如突尼斯、伊朗、埃及和也门。近几十年来，水旱灾害频发频发。19991-94年和97-98年的厄尔尼诺现象给东南亚和太平洋地区带来了以严重干旱为主的水文水资源影响，特别是在20-20S的低纬地区，97年厄尔尼诺现象的影响尤为严重。在越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、缅甸、马来西亚、澳大利亚和新西兰，它对降水和河流径流产生直接影响。另一方面，在中国、韩国、朝鲜和日本，这一现象是间接的。因此，前一类国家对预测SOI和SST的降雨量和河流流量的可能性产生了强烈的兴趣。影响1998年中国大洪水的主要因素可能是集中的暴雨，流域滞留能力的降低，如洞庭湖和森林砍伐，连续堤防系统的扩大，决堤地点的减少，以及由于泥沙和人类居住而导致的渠道通过能力的降低。1997年印尼森林火灾和后果不仅是由于非常严重的干旱，而且还有各种人为因素。灾害造成的死亡人数与国民经济的贫困成正比。穷国在灾难面前比富国更悲惨。另一方面，防洪投资不一定会减少经济损失。较少

The floods and droughts in the 1990's in Southeast Asia and the Pacific were investigated and analyzed towards the practicable disaster prevention management in the region. The study was conducted in collaboration with many researchers in Southeast Asian and the Pacific countries through the Asian Pacific FRIEND (Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data) of UNESCO IHP (International Hydrological Program). The following are the list of selected investigation outcomes. The details are in this report as well as in the Proceedings of Asian Pacific FRIEND and GAME Joint Workshop on ENSO, Floods and Droughts in the 1990's in Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the 1990's held in Hanoi, on 23-25 March 1999 (IHP Regional Steering Committee for Southeast Asia and the Pacific and Vietnamese IHP National Committee (eds)).Floods in the 1990's occurred not only in the flood prone warm humid regions but also elsewhere like US, Canada, Europe, Korean Peninsula and even arid and sem … More i-arid regions such as Tunisia, Iran, Egypt and Yemen. The frequency of floods and droughts seems increasing in the recent decades.The El-Nino of 199 1-94 and 97-98 gave great impacts on hydrology and water resources, mainly as severe droughts, to Southeast Asia and the Pacific, especially in the areas of the lower latitudes between 20N and 20S.The impact of 97 EI-Nino was among others especially devastating.The El-Nino influences different regions in different way. In Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand, it brings direct impacts on precipitation and river runoff. On the other hand, it is indirect in China, R.Korea, DPR Korea and Japan. As a result, there is a strong interest in countries of the former group seeking for the possibility of predicting rainfall and river discharge from SOI's and SST's.The main factors affecting the 1998 Great China floods may be such as concentrated heavy rainfalls, reduced basin retardation capacity such as in Lake Dong Ting and due to deforestation, extension of continuous levee system, decrease of dike breakage sites and decrease of channel capacity due to sedimentation and human dwelling.The 1997 Indonesian forest fires and consequences were not only due to very severe droughts but also due to various human factors.Death tolls by disasters are proportional to the poverty of the national economy. Poor countries are more tragic to disasters than the rich. On the other hand, economic losses may not necessarily be reduced regardless of flood control investments. Less