Nowcasting outbreaks leveraging genomic and epidemiological data

该项目旨在通过开发新的传染病暴发模型，为疫情应对规划提供信息。该项目希望通过将贝叶斯暴发推断的最新进展与独特的模拟方法结合起来，产生关于推动持续爆发的过程的新知识，包括新型冠状病毒(新冠肺炎)和非洲猪瘟的暴发。预期结果应该包括模型的开发和使用方式的转变，以便在疫情展开时为应对疫情提供信息。这应该能够在澳大利亚和海外更迅速地控制疫情，从而减少对公共和动物健康以及相关行业的影响。

This project aims to inform outbreak response planning by developing new models of infectious disease outbreaks. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the processes driving ongoing outbreaks including those of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and African swine fever by integrating the latest advances in Bayesian outbreak inference alongside unique simulation approaches. Expected outcomes should include a shift in how models are developed and used to inform the response to outbreaks as they unfold. This should enable more rapid outbreak containment in Australia and overseas, leading to reduced impacts on public and animal health, and associated industries.