Surface water flood forecast- and nowcast-based loss estimation for resilient finance

全球越来越多地使用危险预警系统，尽管这些系统没有考虑到地表水泛滥--最大的洪灾风险--或来自普通水道的洪水。Previsico目前使用其专有的实时流体动力学建模软件，以25米的分辨率向资产所有者提供地表水泛滥警告和预报服务。洪水预报每三小时生成一次，并使用最新的降雨短时预报和预报生成。该服务发布物业级别的警报，以便将资产转移到安全的地方，组织可以改善其洪水响应。这是市场上第一项提供洪水警报的技术，涵盖地表水和普通水道洪水。它也在不断改进，产生高置信度、房地产级别的实时预测。然而，虽然警告对于减轻实际影响和损失很重要，但可以更好地调整警告，以协调保险公司、再保险公司和更广泛的金融部门的反应。尤其值得注意的是，巨灾索赔准备金的准确性取决于正确和及时的损失估计，这可能直接影响公司的偿付能力和稳定性。迫切需要结合洪水即时预报和对很少考虑的危险(例如地表水和普通水道洪水)进行预测的损失估计工具，以帮助保险公司和再保险公司有信心地作出准备金决定。这类工具可以进一步支持对冲基金发行覆盖洪灾风险较低地区的巨灾债券。例如，如果预测的损失可以忽略不计，则不会触发巨灾债券，对冲基金也不负责向客户赔付，从而增加利润。及时提供财务损失估计对于帮助金融和保险行业抵御气候冲击至关重要。该项目将开发一种损失估计算法，该算法使用Previsico世界领先的预测和即时预测得出的洪水范围和深度数据以及资产风险和脆弱性数据进行参数化，以产生财务风险预测和即时预测。这些将通过Previsico的洪水仪表盘以及资产警报和洪水情报提供给客户，将支持应急响应协调，帮助为资产和关键基础设施提供直接和间接的节省，并通过支持业务连续性减轻对更广泛经济的影响。为了确保开发的产品满足最终用户的需求，瑞士再保险公司解决方案将通过以下方式支持该项目：-通过相关知识、见解和反馈支持产品设计。-提供与客户一起测试建议的解决方案的机会。

Hazard warning systems are being increasingly employed globally, though these fail to account for surface water flooding -- the greatest flood risk of all -- or flooding from ordinary water courses. Previsico currently delivers to asset owners a warning and forecast service for surface water flooding at 25m resolution using its proprietary live hydrodynamic modelling software. Flood forecasts are generated every three hours and are produced using the latest rainfall nowcasts and forecasts. The service issues property-level alerts so assets can be moved to safety, and organisations can improve their flood response. It is the first technology on the market to offer flood warnings that cover surface water and ordinary water course floods. It is also continuously improving, generating high-confidence, property-level real-time predictions. However, whilst warnings are important for mitigating physical impacts and losses, they can be better tailored for coordinating the responses of insurers, re-insurers, and the wider finance sector. Of particular note, the accuracy of catastrophe claim reserves that depends on correct and timely loss estimates can directly affect the solvency and stability of a company. Loss estimation tools combining flood nowcasting and forecasting for perils that are rarely accounted for (e.g. surface water and ordinary water course flooding) are urgently needed to help insurers and reinsurers make reserving decisions with confidence. Such tools can further support hedge funds in issuing catastrophe bonds covering areas at low risk of flooding. For example, if predicted losses are negligible, catastrophe bonds are not triggered and the hedge funds are not liable for pay-out to their clients, increasing profits. Timely financial loss estimates delivered in a timely fashion can be crucial for helping financial and insurance industries weather climate shocks.This project will develop a loss estimation algorithm parameterised using Previsico's world-leading forecast- and nowcast-derived flood extent and depth data and asset exposure and vulnerability data to produce financial risk forecasts and nowcasts. These will in turn be delivered to customers via Previsico's flood dashboard and alongside asset alerts and flood intelligence, will support emergency response coordination, helping deliver direct and indirect savings to assets and critical infrastructure, and mitigation of impacts on the wider economy by supporting business continuity.To ensure the developed product meets the needs of end users, Swiss Re Corporate solutions will support this project by:- Supporting product design with relevant knowledge, insights, and feedback.- Providing opportunities for testing the proposed solution with customers.