Decision-making framework and processes for holistic evaluation of environmental and climate policies (DECIPHER)

气候变化和生物多样性双重危机迫切需要实施包容、公正和有效的政策，而它们不可分割的性质要求采用综合评估方法，捕捉协同效应和权衡。目前用于评估环境政策的主流经济学方法未能捕捉到气候-生物多样性-经济关系的复杂性。尽管不确定性、破坏性和不可逆性是环境挑战所固有的，但在设计和评估政策绩效时却忽视了这些因素。政策有效性和抵御其他影响领域（如生活质量、金融稳定性、政治可行性、创新）的韧性不包括在政策评估中。相反，政策评估是由一套狭隘的指标提供信息的，没有包括可持续性和福祉的更广泛考虑。破译采用系统和多学科的方法，使用不同的模型、方法和过程，显著改善气候变化和生物多样性的决策，提高政策的弹性和可行性。超越最先进的技术，我们将建立一个综合先进的经济和生物物理模型、经验方法和利益相关者参与工具的整体和可操作的决策框架。该框架将环境损害纳入经济主体的经济决策，并引入风险-机会方法进行决策。为了提供对系统动力学和风险的关键见解，开发的模型将配备创新功能，包括改进代理行为的表示，技术创新，金融风险评估以及评估极端事件和关键临界点的能力。新的决策框架将是与利益相关者反复共同创造过程的最终结果，并在实际条件下应用于评估欧盟旗舰政策。

The dual climate change and biodiversity crises put an urgency for implementing inclusive, just, and effective policies, while their inextricable nature calls for integrated assessment approaches that capture synergies and trade-offs. Mainstream economic methods currently used in the appraisal of environmental policies fail to capture the complexity of the climate-biodiversity-economy nexus. Even though uncertainty, disruption, and irreversibility are inherent to environmental challenges, these are overlooked when designing and evaluating the performance of policies. Policy effectiveness and resilience against other impact areas, such as quality of life, financial stability, political feasibility, innovation is not included in policy appraisal. Rather, policy evaluation is informed by a narrow set of metrics, falling short of encompassing broader considerations of sustainability and well-being. DECIPHER employs a systems and multidisciplinary approach using a diverse set of models, methods, and processes to significantly improve decision-making on climate change and biodiversity and enhance policy resilience and feasibility. Moving beyond state-of-the-art, we will establish a holistic and operational decision-making framework that integrates advanced economic and biophysical models, empirical methods and stakeholder participation tools. The novel framework incorporates environmental damages in the economic decisions of agents and introduces a risk-opportunity approach for decision making. To offer critical insights on system dynamics and risks, the models developed will be equipped with innovative features including improved representations of agent behavior, technology innovation, financial risk valuation and the capacity to assess extreme events and critical tipping points. The new decision-making framework will be the end-result of an iterative co-creation process with stakeholders and applied under real-world conditions in the assessment of flagship EU policies.