LONGITUDINAL PREDICITON OF MARITAL DISSOLUTION

这是对一项测试婚姻模型的提案的重新提交 解散。为了实现这一目标，一系列的五个纵向 建议对四组已婚夫妇进行随访。第一批人 其中79对夫妇于1983年首次研究；56对夫妇于2003年首次研究 1986年，63对新婚夫妇在1989年首次被研究；120对新婚夫妇 目前正在研究中。在Time-1，在所有的队列中， 使用调查问卷的冲突、生理数据和自我报告数据 得到了。程序在各队列中都是标准化的。有 只有少数几项研究试图预测 婚姻破裂，没有人使用观察法或生理学方法 措施。以前的预测尝试都产生了微弱的和 结果不一致。基于一项为期4年的纵向研究，数据如下 这表明溶出度的预测是有希望的。 建议在队列中复制和推广这些结果-- 顺序设计。受试者的保留百分比约为92%。 时间-1录像带是用4个观测系统编码的，在1983年 队列，以及随后对所有队列的所有录像带进行编码 建议。婚姻解体的一个类似Guttman的级联模型是 它解决了与短期投资相关的一些问题 对一种相对罕见的二分标准(分离)的纵向研究 或离婚)。一套理论上有动机的观察和自我 报告过程变量被建议作为溶解的预测因子。这个 自我报告变量被证明与观察到的 并与结果变量的级联模型进行比较。这个 观察性变量和自我报告变量也形成了类似古特曼的尺度。 过程变量为(1)。负性与生理学的初等 联动；和(20.模式十：蔑视、辩护、回避和 生理唤醒。调查问卷流程变量为：(1) 孤独；(2)平行生活；(3)问题的严重性；(4)被淹没 伴侣的负面情绪；(5)单独解决问题，而不是与配偶。

This is a resubmission of a proposal to test a model of marital dissolution. To accomplish this aim, a series of five longitudinal followups of four cohorts of married couples is proposed. The first cohort of 79 couples were first studied in 1983; 56 couples were first studied in 1986; 63 were first studied in 1989; and, a group of 120 newlyweds are currently being studied. At Time-1, in all cohorts videotapes of marital conflict, physiological data, and self-report data using questionnaires were obtained. Procedures were standardized across cohorts. There have only been a handful of studies that have attempted the prediction of marital dissolution and none have employed observational or physiological measures. Previous attempts at prediction have produced weak and inconsistent results. Based on a 4-year longitudinal study, data are presented that suggest that the prediction of dissolution is promising. Replication and extension of these results is proposed in a cohort- sequential design. Retention of subject percentages have been about 92%. Time-1 videotapes were coded with 4 observational systems for the 1983 cohort, and the subsequent coding of all the videotapes for all cohorts in proposed. A Guttman-like scale cascade model of marital dissolution is proposed that solves some of the problems associated with short-term longitudinal studies of a relatively rare dichotomous criterion (separation or divorce). A set of theoretically motivated observational and self- report process variables are proposed as predictors of dissolution. The self-report variables are shown to correlate with both observational measures and with the outcome variables of the cascade model. The observational and self-report variables also form a Guttman-like scale. The process variables are (1). The Primary of Negativity and Physiological Linkage; and, (20. Pattern X: Contempt, Defensiveness, Withdrawal, and Physiological Arousal. Questionnaire process variables are: (1) Loneliness; (2) Parallel Lives; (3) Severity of Problems; (4) Flooded by Partner's negative affect; (5) Works problems out alone, not with spouse.