Dynamic demand planning

CARE Planner是一个在线工具，敏锐的NHS信任它可以在COVID19之后使用计划和优先考虑需求和能力。我们NHS对COVID19的反应是非同寻常的。取消所有择期手术、增加4000多张床位(9天内)和重新部署数千名工作人员等措施意味着，NHS已经能够应对高峰的COVID19需求，并有多余的能力。但这是付出了代价的。死亡率数据显示，非COVID19死亡人数有所上升(没有获得基本医疗保健的人？)由于没有进行择期手术，等待名单将增加270万名患者。以任何标准来看，这种积压都是巨大的，NHS将需要有效地计划来管理这种情况，并将CoVID19对国民健康的进一步影响降至最低。因此，NHS的下一个挑战是尽快平稳地过渡到正常状态。Edge Care Planner帮助医院做到这一点。它是一种交互式需求和容量规划工具，利用模拟技术和人工智能，帮助NHS信托了解积压的患者、他们的可用容量并相应地确定优先顺序。CARE Planner是一种在线工具，可以快速部署并根据当地情况进行校准。急性信托可以使用CARE Planner来模拟不同情景的影响，了解不确定性的影响，并相应地制定计划。CARE Planner定期更新，因此基础模型正在从最新数据中学习，并适应国家政策和地方优先事项的变化。CARE Planner是与试点NHS信托一起开发的，以确保输出是有价值的和及时的，并与典型的急性信托面临的规划和优先顺序挑战相关。

CARE Planner is an online tool which acute NHS trusts can use plan and prioritise demand and capacity in the wake of COVID19\.The response of our NHS to COVID19 is extraordinary. Measures such as cancelling all elective surgery, creating 4000+ additional beds (within 9 days) and redeploying thousands of staff mean that the NHS has been able to cope with peak COVID19 demand, with capacity to spare. But this has come at cost. Mortality data shows that non-COVID19 deaths have risen (people not accessing essential health care?) and waiting lists will rise by 2.7m patients because elective surgery is not happening. By any standard, this backlog is huge, and the NHS will need to plan effectively to mange this and to minimise further impacts of COVID19 on the health of the nation.Hence, the next challenge for the NHS is to transition back to normality as smoothly and as quickly possible. The Edge CARE Planner helps hospitals do exactly that. It is an interactive demand and capacity planning tool, drawing on simulation techniques and artificial intelligence, to help NHS trusts understand the backlog of patients, their available capacity and prioritise accordingly.CARE Planner is an online tool that can be deployed quickly and calibrated to fit local circumstances. Acute trusts can use CARE Planner to simulate the impact of different scenarios, understand the impact of uncertainties and plan accordingly. CARE Planner is updated regularly so the underlying models are learning from the latest data and adapting to changes in national policy and local priorities.CARE Planner has been developed with pilot NHS trusts, to ensure the outputs are valuable and timely, and relevant to the planning and prioritisation challenges facing typical acute trusts.