Representing and communicating uncertainty: climate change and risk

2003年夏季的热浪、2007年夏季的洪水、2009年没有到来的“烧烤”夏季以及2011年的干旱威胁等事件的影响和报告都将注意力集中在气候变化及其可能带来的风险上。虽然一般意义上与人类有关的气候变化(几十年到几个世纪的全球变化)可能很难理解，但极端天气事件(如上述事件)的可能性增加更容易理解并引起立即的反应。对大规模洪灾等重大事件的反应几乎总是要求采取行动，既降低事件再次发生的可能性，又在事件发生时将其影响降至最低。当这类事件发生时，人们对气候变化的认识和信念达到了顶峰，尽管气候科学家会指出，任何此类事件都不能直接归因于气候变化。如果预测是“错误的”，就像人们认为2009年会有一个烧烤夏天的建议一样，那么气候科学家就会受到媒体的嘲笑，并失去可信度。一个不幸的、随意的措辞可能导致严重的信任缺失和对气候变化的普遍怀疑。这突显了这项研究的目的，它旨在将研究人员、政府机构和地方当局、私营行业、媒体代表以及对气候变化感兴趣和受影响的人聚集在一起，探讨如何加强沟通和理解。我们特别关注不确定性的概念，以及不同的人如何表达和理解这一概念。气候模型界使用统计数据代表不确定性，随着你试图对可能的气候变化的影响进行建模的过程，因此层层的不确定性叠加在一起，确定实际可能发生的事情变得更加难以表达。这种不确定性可能与我们在日常生活中使用的不确定有所不同；直觉、文化和社会规范都会影响我们如何看待发生某事的风险以及我们将如何应对它。这些对不确定性的看法将决定我们如何在特定背景下评估风险，以及我们愿意在多大程度上改变自己的行为，为特定事件做好准备。如果我们要制定政策和战略来有效应对气候变化带来的风险，那么就需要探索这些关于不确定性是什么以及如何传达不确定性的截然不同的想法，并努力开发出一种相互可以理解的词汇或语言。我们打算通过在研究界内(往往侧重于与其特定的同行群体交流而不是更广泛地交流)以及研究人员与其他所有人之间发展真正的合作伙伴关系，为这一进程作出贡献。参与该项目的研究人员来自广泛的学科，但他们都对不确定性和气候变化及其影响感兴趣。为了利用广泛的组织和个人的意见，我们打算利用我们已知的广泛联系，但也打算为该项目设立一个小型指导小组(主要是非学术界的)，他们可以帮助我们找出缺失的元素。由于这只是一个六个月的项目，它实际上只是一个进程的开始，但我们相信，它将有助于在气候变化和风险这一关键领域建立联系和交流，这是文化科学的核心。

The impacts and reporting of events such as the heat wave of summer 2003, the floods of summer 2007, the non-arrival of a 'barbeque' summer in 2009 and the threat of drought in 2011 have all focused attention on climate change and the risks that it might pose. Whilst human related climate change in its general sense (global changes over timescale of decades to centuries) can be difficult to grasp, the increased likelihood of extreme weather events (such as those described above) is easier to understand and evoke an immediate response. The response to major events, such as large scale flooding, is almost always to demand action both to reduce the possibility of the event happening again and to minimise its impact if it does happen. When such events occur, awareness of and belief in climate change, is at its height, even though climate scientists will point out that any individual incident of this kind cannot be directly attributed to climate change. If forecasts are 'wrong', as was felt to be the case with the suggestion of a barbeque summer for 2009, then the climate scientists are mocked in the media and lose credibility. An unfortunate, casual choice of words, can result in a major lack of trust and increased scepticism about climate change generally. This highlights the aim of this study, which is to bring together researchers, government agencies and local authorities, private industry, representatives of the media and people interested in and affected by climate change, to explore how to improve communication and understanding. Our particular focus is on the concept of uncertainty and how this is expressed and understood by different people. The climate modelling community represent uncertainty using statistics and as you move through a process of trying to model the impacts of possible climate change, so layers of uncertainty are superimposed and identifying what is realistically likely becomes more difficult to express. This version of uncertainty is probably not the same as the one we use in our everyday lives; gut instinct, cultural and social norms will all affect how we view the risk of something happening and how we will respond to it. These perceptions of uncertainty will dictate how we assess risk in particular contexts and how far we are willing to change our behaviour and prepare for particular events. If we are to develop policies and strategies to deal effectively with the risks posed by climate change, then these very different ideas about what uncertainty is, and how it is communicated, need to be explored and efforts made to develop a vocabulary, or language, that is mutually intelligible. We intend to contribute to this process by developing real collaborative partnerships both within the research community (too often perhaps focusing on communicating with its particular peer group rather than more widely) and between the researchers and everyone else. The researchers involved in this project come from a wide range of disciplines, but all have an interest in uncertainty and climate change and its impacts. In order to tap into the view of a wide group of organisations and individuals, we intend to draw on the wide range of contacts already known to us, but also to set up a small steering group for the project (largely non-academic) who can help us to identify missing elements. As this is only a six month project, it is really only the start of a process, but we believe that it will help to build links and communication in the vital area of climate change and risk which lies at the heart of science in culture.