Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty and Improved Decision-Making Under Risk

传达天气预报的不确定性并改进风险下的决策

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1023354
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 37万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2010-09-15 至 2014-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The research team investigates several critical and previously unexplored issues related to the cognitive processing and communication of weather forecast uncertainty. This project takes a novel experimental approach, directly comparing weather-related decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. The goal is to determine the circumstances under which uncertainty estimates are advantageous, despite the fact that they may result in decisions that are suboptimal from a rational perspective. These studies use actual forecasts and forecast expressions in the context of complex, realistic decision tasks, testing specific advantages of uncertainty forecasts, such as individualized decision making and increased trust in the forecast. The project makes important theoretical contributions by exploring the psychological processes that underlie "risk seeking" choices, the relationship between error in the forecast and loss of trust, and the tendency to "simplify" uncertainty forecasts by misinterpreting them as deterministic quantities. Many decisions with important economic and safety consequences (such as whether to protect crops against frost damage or whether to evacuate communities threatened by floods or hurricanes) are based on forecasts that are inherently uncertain. Although it is now possible to assess that uncertainty, little of this information reaches the end user. This is due in part to the fact that it was previously unknown whether lay users could make good use of uncertainty information. This project thereby has practical contributions by exploring methods for communicating forecast uncertainty to overcome problems. For instance, it tackles the largely untested question of whether visualization actually helps people to understand uncertainty. The practical contributions described here are significant especially in context of weather warnings, as the nation faces the consequences of climate change.
该研究小组调查了与天气预报不确定性的认知处理和沟通相关的几个关键和以前未探索的问题。该项目采用了一种新颖的实验方法,直接比较有和没有不确定性预测的天气相关决策。我们的目标是确定的情况下,不确定性估计是有利的,尽管事实上,他们可能会导致决策,是次优的理性的角度来看。这些研究在复杂、现实的决策任务中使用实际预测和预测表达式,测试不确定性预测的具体优势,例如个性化决策和增加对预测的信任。该项目通过探索“风险寻求”选择的心理过程,预测错误与信任损失之间的关系,以及通过将不确定性预测误解为确定性数量来“简化”不确定性预测的趋势,做出了重要的理论贡献。 许多具有重要经济和安全后果的决策(例如是否保护作物免受霜冻损害或是否疏散受洪水或飓风威胁的社区)都是基于固有的不确定性的预测。虽然现在可以评估这种不确定性,但这些信息很少到达最终用户。这部分是由于以前不知道非专业用户是否可以很好地利用不确定性信息。因此,该项目通过探索沟通预测不确定性的方法来克服问题,从而做出了实际贡献。例如,它解决了一个基本上未经测试的问题,即可视化是否真的有助于人们理解不确定性。这里描述的实际贡献是重要的,特别是在天气警报的背景下,因为国家面临气候变化的后果。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
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会议论文数量(0)
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Susan Joslyn其他文献

Factors Influencing Delayed Hospital Presentation in Patients with Appendicitis
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2016.06.223
  • 发表时间:
    2016-10-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Anne P. Ehlers;Frederick T. Drake;Meera Kotagal;Vlad V. Simianu;Nidhi Agrawal;Susan Joslyn;David R. Flum
  • 通讯作者:
    David R. Flum

Susan Joslyn的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Susan Joslyn', 18)}}的其他基金

DRMS: Improving Public Response to Weather Warnings
DRMS:改善公众对天气警报的响应
  • 批准号:
    1559126
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Perception of Climate Change
对气候变化的看法
  • 批准号:
    1430781
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
DRU: A Multi-disciplinary Approach to Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty
DRU:传达天气预报不确定性的多学科方法
  • 批准号:
    0724721
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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