Modelling economic impact and strategies to increase resilience against tree disease outbreaks

联合王国的森林正面临来自害虫和病原体的越来越大的压力。贸易量和全球规模的增加，加上全球变化背景下害虫的进化和适应，导致英国出现新的疾病和害虫的速度越来越快。因此，问题不在于未来几年是否会出现新的流行病，而在于何时以及如何发生。树木病害造成的经济代价既包括木材价值的损失，也包括对森林景观的影响等环境代价。然而，减少发生的可能性或传播的速度和范围的措施也是昂贵的森林管理人员。因此，需要达成一种重要的平衡。要了解降低疾病风险的管理方案的成本和效益，研究人员需要同时考虑环境和经济驱动因素。物理和生物环境的特点影响植物病害的传播，但森林管理人员的反应也决定了这种传播。此外，一个特定的森林管理者自己的行动的结果取决于其他人在景观中的行动，因为它是决定疾病传播的土地管理的整体空间格局。森林用于生产木材，但也具有娱乐和美学价值，并在碳循环中发挥着关键作用。最大限度地提高产出的非货币（例如养护）或货币（例如木材）价值的土地管理政策并不一定导致最有利于减少疾病风险的森林景观结构、树种组成或林业做法。一方面加强森林的碳固存和供应及文化生态系统服务，另一方面提高森林生态系统对虫害和病原体爆发的抵抗力和复原力，这两者之间存在着潜在的冲突。在这个项目中，一个由数学家、森林生态学家和经济学家组成的跨学科小组将共同努力建立一系列模型，使我们能够研究不同的管理方案如何减少一系列森林疾病的风险和预期损害。除了考虑疾病管理备选方案对疾病传播的影响外，这些模型还将产生关于这些备选方案对森林提供其他生态系统服务（如碳固存和储存）和娱乐机会的影响的信息，以及关于森林生物多样性指标的信息。这些模式，再加上一项以市民为对象的“选择实验”，可让我们衡量这些管理方案的效益和成本，以及研究哪些政策方案最能节省公帑。建模工作的一个重要方面将是显示森林之间的空间相互作用，这是了解疾病传播的关键。我们还将研究的不确定性的影响，对森林管理者的影响，他们的行动上的最佳选择，使用一个真实的选项approach.Potential的应用和benefitsThe项目将提供的结果，将是有用的森林管理者和政府机构和部门，关心树木和植物疾病和森林管理。森林管理备选办法的风险等级和管理备选办法的成本效益等级将有助于提高森林疾病管理和政策设计的质量。广泛的利益攸关方将参与该项目的知识交流活动，以确保这些见解得到最广泛的应用。该项目还将推进研究与土地管理有关的侵入性疾病的科学方法。

ContextForests in the United Kingdom are facing increasing pressures from pests and pathogens. An increase in the volume and global scale of trade, coupled with the evolution and adaptation of pests in the context of global change, has led to new diseases and pests appearing in the UK at an increasing rate. Thus, the issue is not so much whether a new epidemic will emerge in the next years, but when and how it will happen. Tree diseases result in economic costs in terms both of losses in timber values and environmental costs such as impacts on forest landscapes. However, measures to reduce the likelihood of occurrence or speed and extent of spreading the UK are also costly to forest managers. There is thus an important balance to be struck. Understanding the costs and benefits of management options to reduce disease risk requires the researcher to jointly consider both environmental and economic drivers. The characteristics of the physical and biological environment affect the spread of plant diseases, but the response of forest managers also determines this spread. Moreover, the outcomes for a given forest manager of their own actions depends on the actions of others in the landscape, since it is the overall spatial pattern of land management which determines disease spread.Forests in the UK provide a range of important ecosystem services. Forests are used for the production of timber, but also have recreational and aesthetic values and play a key role in the carbon cycle. Land management policies which maximize the non-monetary (e.g. conservation) or monetary (e.g. timber) value of output do not necessarily lead to a forest landscape structure, tree species composition or forestry practices that are best for disease risk minimization. There is a potential conflict between enhancing the carbon sequestration and provisioning and cultural ecosystem services of forests on one hand, and increasing the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystems with regard to outbreaks of pests and pathogens on the other. Aims and objectivesIn this project, an interdisciplinary team of mathematicians, forest ecologists and economists will work together to build a series of models to allow us to study the ways in which different management options can reduce risks and expected damages from a range of forest diseases. Besides considering the effects of disease management options on the spread of diseases, the models will generate information on the effects of these options on the supply of other ecosystem services from forests, such as carbon sequestration and storage, and recreation opportunities, as well as on an indicator of forest biodiversity. Combined with a "Choice Experiment" implemented with members of the general public, these models will allow us to measure the benefits and costs of these management options, and to study which policy options offer best value for public money. An important aspect of the modelling work will be to show the spatial interactions between forests which are key to understanding disease spread. We will also study the implications of uncertainty on the part of forest managers over the effects of their actions on the best choice of option, using a real options approach.Potential applications and benefitsThe project will provide results that will be of use to forest managers and to government agencies and departments which are concerned with tree and plant diseases and forest management. A risk ranking of forest management options, and a cost-benefit ranking of management options will help improve the quality of forest disease management and policy design. A wide range of stakeholders will be included in the project's knowledge exchange activities to ensure the widest application of these insights. The project will also advance scientific methods in the study of invasive diseases which are linked to land management.