STATISTICAL METHODS IN AIDS RESEARCH

这笔赠款的总体目标是发展和应用统计和 艾滋病研究中的定量方法。有超过29，00例艾滋病病例报告 根据疾病控制中心的数据，截至1987年1月，艾滋病流行情况是 成为美国最紧迫的公共卫生问题。 这项提议有两个具体目标。第一个是 发展定量方法来预测艾滋病流行的进程 从现有的艾滋病发病率数据来看，人类免疫缺陷病毒 (艾滋病毒)血清阳性率、传播知识和自然病史 艾滋病毒感染的可能性。这些方法将被应用于获得以下项目的预测 在美国的每个风险组。一个小主题将是……的发展 评估传播预防计划的潜在影响的方法 以及对未来病例数量的治疗干预计划。 第二个目标是开发统计方法，用于研究 艾滋病流行病学。我们将专注于开发用于 估计感染后至艾滋病的时间分布。一个 引入了许多重要的复杂性，因为 通常不能准确地知道感染情况，因为感染率 随着日历时间的变化。这些方法将与许多 目前正在进行重要的艾滋病研究。我们将把这些技术应用于 血友病队列和计算结果将用于我们的 对艾滋病流行过程进行预测的工作。

The overall objective of this grant is to develop and apply statistical and quantitative methods in AIDS research. With over 29,00 AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control as of January 1987, the AIDS epidemic is becoming the most urgent public health problem in the United States. There are two specific objectives for this proposal. The first is to develop quantitative methods for projecting the course of the aids epidemic from the available data on AIDS incidence, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroprevalence and knowledge of the transmission and natural history of HIV infection. The methods will be applied to obtain projections for each risk group in the United States. A subtopic will be the development of methods to evaluate the potential impact of transmission prevention programs and treatment intervention programs on numbers of future cases. The second objective is to develop statistical methods for studies of the epidemiology of AIDS. We will focus on the development of methods for estimating the distribution of the time to AIDS following infection. A number of important complexities are introduced because the date of infection is usually not know preciously, and because the infection rate changes over calendar time. The methods will be relevant to a number of important AIDS studies currently underway. We will apply the techniques to a hemophiliac cohort and the results of the calculations will be used in our work on projections of the course of the AIDS epidemic.