STATISTICAL METHODS IN AIDS RESEARCH

这项赠款的总体目标是发展和应用统计和 艾滋病研究中的定量方法。 报告了超过29000例艾滋病病例 截至1987年1月，艾滋病流行是 成为美国最紧迫的公共卫生问题。 这项建议有两个具体目标。 一是 制定预测艾滋病流行过程的定量方法 从艾滋病发病率、人体免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV)血清阳性率以及传播和自然史知识 艾滋病毒感染。 这些方法将用于获得预测， 美国的每一个风险群体。 一个副主题将是 评估传播预防计划潜在影响的方法 和治疗干预计划的未来病例数。 第二个目标是发展统计方法， 艾滋病的流行病学。 我们将重点发展的方法， 估计感染后到艾滋病的时间分布。 一 许多重要的复杂性，因为日期介绍 感染通常是不知道preciously，因为感染率 随着日历时间的变化而变化。 这些方法将与一些 艾滋病研究正在进行中。 我们将把这些技术应用于 血友病队列和计算结果将用于我们的 致力于预测艾滋病流行的进程。

The overall objective of this grant is to develop and apply statistical and quantitative methods in AIDS research. With over 29,00 AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control as of January 1987, the AIDS epidemic is becoming the most urgent public health problem in the United States. There are two specific objectives for this proposal. The first is to develop quantitative methods for projecting the course of the aids epidemic from the available data on AIDS incidence, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroprevalence and knowledge of the transmission and natural history of HIV infection. The methods will be applied to obtain projections for each risk group in the United States. A subtopic will be the development of methods to evaluate the potential impact of transmission prevention programs and treatment intervention programs on numbers of future cases. The second objective is to develop statistical methods for studies of the epidemiology of AIDS. We will focus on the development of methods for estimating the distribution of the time to AIDS following infection. A number of important complexities are introduced because the date of infection is usually not know preciously, and because the infection rate changes over calendar time. The methods will be relevant to a number of important AIDS studies currently underway. We will apply the techniques to a hemophiliac cohort and the results of the calculations will be used in our work on projections of the course of the AIDS epidemic.