STATISTICAL METHODS IN AIDS RESEARCH

这项赠款的总体目标是继续发展和应用 艾滋病研究中的统计方法。 有超过15万艾滋病病例 截至1990年10月，向疾病控制中心报告的艾滋病 流行病是美国最紧迫的公共卫生问题之一 States. 本研究的重点是艾滋病的统计建模 疫情 这项建议有三个具体目标。 的 首先是发展统计方法，以获得更好的估计 以及未来艾滋病的发病率。 方法将 调查结合艾滋病发病率数据和潜伏期 根据艾滋病毒流行率的直接估计数得出分布估计数 从流行病学调查。 第二个目标是发展一个 分析艾滋病毒流行率系列调查的统计框架， 确定可以收集到哪些关于艾滋病毒发病率的信息 感染这些数据。 该方法将应用于军事 第三个目标是仔细审查申请人在美国的数据。 研究了影响反算的不确定性因素 方法以及这些不确定性如何传播到 目前和过去艾滋病毒流行率的估计数，以及对今后 艾滋病发病率。 将考虑的不确定性来源 包括感染率的参数模式1、潜伏期 艾滋病发病率的时间分布、报告延误和错误，以及 治疗的有效性和可用性。 这项工作将需要 详细的敏感性分析和量化模型的影响 错误说明 我们将描述 反算方法在各种情况下。

The overall objective of this grant is to continue to develop and apply statistical methods in AIDS research. With over 150,000 AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control as of October 1990, the AIDS epidemic is one of the most urgent public health problems in the United States. The focus of this research is on statistical modeling of the AIDS epidemic. There are three specific objectives of this proposal. The first is to develop statistical methods for obtaining improved estimates of current HIV prevalence .and future AIDS incidence. Methods will be investigated for combining AIDS incidence data and incubation distribution estimates with direct estimates of HIV prevalence obtained from epidemiologic surveys. The second objective is to develop a statistical framework for analyzing serial HIV prevalence surveys and to determine what information can be gleaned about the incidence of HIV infection from such data. The methods will be applied to military applicant screening data in the U.S. The third objective is to carefully study the uncertainties which may effect the back-calculation methodology and how these uncertainties are propagated into the estimates of current and past HIV prevalence, and projections of future AIDS incidence. The sources of uncertainty that will be considered include the parametric mode-1 for the infection rate, the incubation period distribution, reporting delays and errors in AIDS incidence, and the efficacy and availability of treatment. This work will entail detailed sensitivity analyses and quantification of the effects of model misspecification. We will characterize the performance of back-calculation methods In a wide range of situations.