PIGSustain: Predicting the Impacts of Intensification and Future Changes on UK Pig Industry Resilience

预计到本世纪中叶，全球人口将从2015年的72亿增加到96亿。与此同时，每个人每年平均消费的肉类数量正在稳步增加，预计全球肉类消费将在同一时间框架内翻一番。为了能够养活不断增长的人口，有必要加强我们的农业系统。然而，尽管农业的进一步集约化可能使该行业能够满足未来的肉类需求，但该行业目前的可持续性受到许多外部因素的威胁，例如对耗尽的自然资源的竞争、气候变化、疾病和环境问题，最近畜牧业的集约化至少对此负有部分责任。目前的情况是，我们对我国猪群的健康和福利没有持续、客观和量化的了解，同样，我们也没有客观和量化的预测，未来行业通过集约化、气候变化、全球生产和贸易的变化将如何影响这一点，以及消费者需求方面。同样，我们无法预测英国养猪业作为一个整体的弹性有多强，以及它能否以及如何在面对这样的变化时保持稳定。这个项目将使用系统的方法来了解可持续的集约化和预测的气候变化预计将如何影响整个养猪业-我们将制作模型来预测集约化对动物的健康、疾病和福利的影响：消费模式和零售价格可能会如何受到影响，这些变化将如何影响农民，以及这些变化将如何影响动物的健康和福利。我们将从广泛的来源收集数据，以评估健康和福利如何与气候、地理和其他因素联系起来。严重缺乏详细、实时的农场健康和福利措施，迫切需要一个系统，以便快速、高效和准确地连续收集和记录农场的健康和福利措施。我们将开发一个先进的自动化计算机视觉系统，能够收集关于农场健康、福利和生产力的实时信息，这将使我们详细了解农场的健康和福利措施如何与屠宰场收集的措施相匹配。开发这一系统的目的是为了使其可用于商业上对猪的全天候持续监测，并为兽医和农民提供输出，以了解一段时间内围栏内发生的变化。养猪业和猪兽医的代表认为，这个系统是补充兽医咨询的迫切需要，以改善福利管理和审计。我们将收集零售数据以及消费者模式和态度数据，以了解消费者行为背后的社会和地理人口统计数据。我们将调查农业经济如何受到健康和福利问题的影响，并开发这些养猪业系统的这些组成部分如何相互作用的预测模型。我们将研究疾病流行与农业经济、市场稳定和消费者选择之间的联系。利用这些信息，我们将开发一个系统模型来解释每个组件是如何相关的，并具有相互影响的潜力。使用系统模型中不同养猪业不同组成部分的替代未来情景和预测的未来趋势，我们将确定英国养猪业的弹性有多大，以及哪些因素对维持未来的稳定至关重要。

The global human population is expected to rise from 7.2 billion in 2015 to 9.6 billion by the middle of this century. At the same time, the average amount of meat each person consumes per year is steadily increasing, with global meat consumption predicted to double within the same time frame. In order to be able to feed this growing population, intensification of our agricultural systems will be necessary. However, while further intensification in agriculture might enable the industry to fulfill future meat demand, the sustainability of the industry as it currently stands is threatened by numerous external factors, such as competition for depleting natural resources, climate change, disease, and environmental concerns for which recent intensification of livestock production is, at least, partially responsible.At present, the situation is such that we do not have a continuous, objective and quantified understanding of the health and welfare of our national pig herd, and equally, we have no objective and quantified predictions of how this will be impacted by future changes to the industry through intensification, climate change, changes in global production and trade, and in consumer demand. Equally, we are unable to predict how resilient the UK pig industry is as a whole, and whether and how it will be able to remain stable in the face of such changes. This project will use a systems approach in order to understand how sustainable intensification and predicted climate changes are expected to impact on the pig industry as a whole - we will produce models to predict the impacts of intensification on the health, disease and welfare of the animals: how consumption patterns and retail prices are likely to be affected, how these changes will impact farmers, and how these in turn will impact on the health and welfare of the animals.We will collect data from a wide range of sources in order to assess how health and welfare are linked with climate, geography and other factors. Detailed, real-time measures of health and welfare on-farm are seriously lacking and a system for quickly, efficiently and accurately collecting and recording health and welfare measures on a continuous basis on-farm is urgently needed. We will develop a cutting-edge, automated computer vision system capable of collecting real-time information on health, welfare and productivity on-farm, which will provide us with a detailed understanding of how on-farm health and welfare measures match up against measures collected at the slaughterhouse. This system will be developed with a view to making it commercially available for continuous monitoring of pigs 24/7, with outputs for vets and farmers to understand the changes that have taken place within pens over a period of time. This system has been identified by representatives of the pig industry and pig vets as something which is sorely needed to supplement vet consults, in order to improve welfare management and auditing.We will collect retail data and consumer pattern and attitudes data to understand the socio- and geographical demographics underlying consumer behaviour. We will investigate how agricultural economics are affected by health and welfare issues, and develop predictive models of how these components of the pig industry system interact. We will investigate the links between disease prevalence and agricultural economics, market stability, and consumer choices. Using this information, we will develop a systems model to explain how each component is related to, and has the potential to influence each other. Using alternative future scenarios and predicted future trends for the different components of the pig industry within the system model, we will determine how resilient the UK pig industry is, and what factors are critical for the maintenance of future stability.