YY-EEID US-UK The evolutionary ecology of pathogen emergence via cross-species transmission in the avian-equine influenza system

病毒的出现对人类和动物构成了持续的威胁，我们既无法预测哪些病毒会出现，也无法预测何时何地或哪些人群会受到影响。该项目的总体目标是确定环境、宿主和病毒因素如何影响宿主-病原体相互作用和潜在新出现病毒的传播动力学。禽流感病毒（AIV）为解决这一问题提供了独特的机会，因为它们已经侵入人类，狗，猪和马，对公共卫生，食品安全和全球经济产生了重大影响。我们将重点关注AIV对马的传播和出现，因为AIV毒株在独立的情况下出现在马种群中。我们建议在一个明确定义的生态系统中进行实地工作，该生态系统有利于禽-马AIV传播，并使用具有不同水平的“马适应性”（在马中感染和传播的能力）的禽流感病毒和马流感病毒进行实验室实验。我们的实验室实验将使用基因工程来捕捉由于病毒进化而引起的适应性变化。所获得的结果将在一个数学框架中进行组合，该框架将能够估计病毒出现的风险，包括群体免疫的影响。这项多学科研究将为病毒出现的机制提供新的见解，并将有助于设计更有效的干预措施，以控制未来的病毒出现事件。

Viral emergence poses a constant threat to humans and animals and we are neither able to predict which viruses will emerge, nor where, when, or which populations will be affected. The overall aim of this project is to determine how environmental, host, and virus factors influence host-pathogen interactions and transmission dynamics of potentially emerging viruses. Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) provide unique opportunities to address this because they have jumped into humans, dogs, pigs and horses, with significant consequences on public health, food security, and the global economy. We will focus on the transmission and emergence of AIVs to horses because AIV strains have emerged in horse populations on independent occasions. We propose to perform field work in a well-defined ecosystem that favours avian-to-horse AIV transmission and also to perform laboratory experiments using avian and equine influenza viruses with different levels of "equine fitness" - ability to infect and transmit in horses. Our laboratory experiments will use genetic engineering to capture changes in fitness due to virus evolution. Results obtained will be combined in a mathematical framework that will enable the estimation of risk of viral emergence, including the effects of herd immunity. This multidisciplinary research will provide new insights on the mechanisms that underpin viral emergence and will aid the design of more effective intervention measures to control future events of viral emergence.