Greenhouse Gas Removal Plus (GGR+): Sustainable Treescapes Demonstrator & Decision Tools

由于气候变化行动的需要，英国政府承诺在2050年前实现温室气体净零排放的雄心勃勃的任务。然而，一些来自农业、航空和其他活动的排放很难消除。因此，为了达到净零排放，英国还必须直接从大气中消除相当于每年1亿吨二氧化碳的温室气体。减少温室气体排放(GGR)，增加英国“树木逃生”(森林、树篱等)中储存的碳。具有最大的潜力，最低的成本，并且可以立即启动。种植林地可以将碳储存在直立树木、森林土壤和木材产品中。出于这些原因，英国致力于大幅增加森林覆盖率。然而，我们对所有这些过程以及它们如何在不同地点和时间上变化的理解是不完整的。这一重大计划将收集证据，解决知识差距，并使决策者了解不同种植选择的GGR后果。林地还可以提供许多其他好处，创造保护野生物种的栖息地，提高水质，调节降雨和减少洪水风险，并提供娱乐(因此有“GGR+”的标题)。GGR+将研究林业的所有不同方面，以确定“正确的树在正确的地方”。然而，同样有可能在错误的地方种植错误的树。这可能会对生物多样性造成破坏，甚至会导致一些土壤向大气中释放大量碳。此外，如果某些类型的农业被取代，为了提高农业产量，可能会从破坏热带雨林的国家进口更多粮食。最重要的是，气候变化意味着许多风险(森林火灾、极端天气、疾病)的变化速度比以往任何时候都快。“在正确的地方种植正确的树”并不是一个简单的命题--如果我们不小心，没有适当地考虑到复杂性，英国的净零植树战略将设计得很糟糕，在最糟糕的情况下，可能会导致森林实际上加剧气候变化。然而，即使了解在不同地点种植的后果，也不足以规划英国森林的未来。土地通常是私人所有的，政府不能规定其用途。相反，他们需要为业主决定植树创造条件和激励措施。因此，GGR+还将承担将科学建议转化为实践所需的经济研究。这一挑战不能由科学家单独解决，GGR+的合作伙伴包括英国土地使用政策制定者，包括所有林业局、负责林业、气候和农业的Defra团队(他们将使用GGR+每年种植30,000公顷)，以及国防部(拥有大量土地)。来自私营和非政府组织部门，我们的合作伙伴包括大型土地所有者，如Network Rail和National Trust(他们将根据GGR+建议为超过74,000公顷的种植提供资金)，以及一个由1,400多名农民、木材和建筑部门以及许多其他利益相关者组成的网络。GGR+将与我们的合作伙伴一起设计创新的“决策支持工具”；定制的软件允许用户检查一项植树投资或政策在温室气体储存、粮食生产、参与者的收入、对生物多样性、水质、洪水、娱乐等方面的影响。这是一种令人兴奋的、高度跨学科的方法，可以回答一个令人惊讶的具有挑战性的问题：在正确的地方找到正确的树，并让英国走上到2050年实现净零排放的道路。

Due to the need for climate change action, UK Government has committed to the ambitious task of achieving 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. However, some emissions from farming, aviation and other activities are very difficult to eliminate. So to reach net zero the UK must also directly remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere amounting to the equivalent of 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide/year. Of the Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options available, increasing the carbon stored in the UK's 'treescapes' (forests, hedgerows etc.) has the greatest potential, the lowest cost, and can be started immediately. Planting woodlands can store carbon in standing trees, in forest soils and in timber products. For these reasons, the UK is committed to a huge increase in forest cover. However, our understanding of all these processes and how they vary across locations and over time is incomplete. This major programme will gather evidence, address knowledge gaps and allow decision makers to understand the GGR consequences of different planting options. Woodlands can also deliver many other benefits, creating habitats to conserve wild species, enhancing water quality, regulating rainfall and reducing flood risk, and providing recreation (hence the "GGR+" title). GGR+ will examine all the diverse aspects of forestry to identify "The Right Tree in the Right Place". However, it is equally possible to plant the wrong tree in the wrong place. This can result in damage to biodiversity, and even cause some soils to release huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Also, if certain types of agriculture are displaced, there could be higher imports of food from countries that destroy rainforests to increase farm yields. On top of this, climate change means that many risks (forest fires, extreme weather, disease) are changing faster than ever. "The Right Tree in the Right Place" is not a simple proposition - if we are not careful, and don't consider the complexities properly, the UK's net zero tree planting strategy will be poorly designed, and at worst could result in forests that actually increase climate change. However, even understanding the consequences of planting in different locations is not enough to plan the future of the UK's forests. Land is typically privately owned and Government cannot dictate its use. Rather they need to create the conditions and incentives needed for owners to decide to plant trees. Consequently, GGR+ will also undertake the economic research needed to turn science advice into practice. This challenge cannot be addressed by scientists alone, and the GGR+ partners include UK land use policy makers, including all of the Forestry authorities, the Defra teams responsible for forestry, climate and agriculture (who will use GGR+ to plant 30,000ha/year), as well as the Ministry of Defence (which has huge land holdings). From the private and NGO sectors our partners include massive land owners such as Network Rail and the National Trust (who together will fund over 74,000ha of planting based on GGR+ advice), as well as a network of over 1,400 farmers, the timber and building sector and many other stakeholders. Together with our partners, GGR+ will design innovative "decision support tools"; bespoke software allowing users to examine the effects of a tree planting investment or policy in terms of greenhouse gas storage, food production, incomes of those involved, effects on biodiversity, water quality, flooding, recreation etc. Perhaps most revolutionary, this tool will allow users to specify what outcomes they want and then see what planting, policy or investments they need to get those outcomes. This is an exciting, highly interdisciplinary approach to answering the surprisingly challenging question of finding "The Right Tree in the Right Place" and setting the UK on the path to delivering net zero emissions by 2050.