Increasing UK Dietary Fibre - The Case for the Great White British Loaf

大约90%的英国人每天摄入的纤维低于政府建议的30克。低纤维摄入量与患肠癌(英国男性和女性死亡率第二高的癌症)和长期慢性病(特别是2型糖尿病和心血管疾病)的风险更高有关。白面包占英国面包销量的76%，每天大约售出1200万条面包。再加上白面包很受欢迎，人们需要增加饮食中的纤维，以及为了让消费者站在一边而逐步而不是突然地改变膳食纤维摄入量(例如从白面包到全麦面包)，增加白面包的纤维含量极有可能有助于增加英国整体膳食纤维摄入量。目前的纤维强化白面包(例如50：50)使用昂贵的进口全麦小麦，而这种小麦不能在英国种植。我们将使用新开发的纤维强化白面粉，这种面粉可以在英国种植，以保持面包的白色，并降低成本。白面粉还有可能用于其他与烘焙相关的产品，如牛角面包、面包和披萨，行业利益相关者将在该项目中探索这些产品。利用行为学、食品技术和预测建模相结合的方法，并与行业密切合作，我们的项目将确定英国小麦农业食品链需要进行哪些变革，才能向消费者提供高纤维白面包。我们的项目是与Asda、他们的相关磨坊和面包师(联合技术中心；ATC)、种子生产商(LImagrain)、英国小麦链条关联机构(英国面粉研磨商和农业园艺发展局)和谷物经纪人(AGRICOLE)合作开发的。我们的综合消费者行为和食品技术研究将确定富含纤维的白面包的可接受性，而经济行为研究将侧重于小麦农业食品供应链中的各个部分(从生产到制造和分销)彼此之间的关系。第一项工作将确保生产出消费者想要购买的面包，而第二项工作将为我们小麦连锁店模式(WCM)的发展提供信息。这将与工业界合作开发，并通过同时模拟英国农业用地使用(Luam模型)、英国季节性天气变化和气候变化对英国国内小麦生产的影响(GLAM-UK模型)和国际进口(GLAM模型)来提供信息。Luam和GLAM型号之前都考虑了小麦，GLAM型号将在我们的项目期间适应英国。生命周期评估工作将有助于确定哪些环境影响可能受到小麦品种变化的影响，并包括对这些影响的不确定性和敏感性分析，WCM将考虑英国小麦农业食物链的动态，并考虑国内生产与进口面粉的对比。与所有行业伙伴及其各自协会一起进行的行业知情建模将量化在国内和进口小麦需求的复杂背景下增加富含纤维的面粉产量所需的转型步骤。我们将利用一系列数据向WCM提供信息，包括公开可用的数据，如农场业务调查、通过我们的行业合作伙伴提供的数据、对英国面粉磨坊成员和其他行业利益相关者的调查。将分析在项目期间收集的关于链中参与者如何相互关联的数据。它将通知我们的WCM，并通过我们的项目网站向其他研究人员和公众开放。我们将为我们的小麦链模型创建一个图形用户界面(GUI)。这将允许利益攸关方和政策制定者在项目期间和之后使用该模式，该模式的一般性将意味着它可以很容易地应用于除小麦以外的其他农业食物链。

Around 90% of the UK population consumes less than the government recommended 30g of fibre per day. Low fibre intake is linked to higher risk of bowel cancer (the second highest mortality rate cancer for men and women in the UK) and long term chronic diseases (particularly type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease). White bread accounts for 76% of bread sold in the UK with around 12 million loaves being sold each day. Coupled with its high popularity, the need for increased fibre in the diet and gradual rather than abrupt changes to dietary fibre intakes (e.g. from white to wholegrain) to keep consumers onside, increasing the fibre content of white bread is highly likely to contribute to increasing overall UK dietary fibre intake. Current fibre enhanced white breads (e.g. 50:50) use expensive imported wholemeal wheat, which cannot be grown in the UK. We will use newly developed fibre enhanced white flour, which can grow in the UK, to maintain the white nature of the bread and keep costs down. The white flour also has the potential to be used in other bakery related products such as croissants, naan breads and pizzas, which will be explored by industry stakeholders in this project. Utilising a combined behavioural, food technology and predictive modelling approach, informed by close collaboration with industry, our project will identify what transformation in the UK wheat agri-food chain is needed to deliver high fibre white loaf bread to consumers. Our project has been developed in collaboration with ASDA, their associated millers and bakers (Allied Technical Centre; ATC), seed producers (Limagrain), UK wheat chain associated bodies (UK Flour Millers and the Agricultural Horticultural Development Board) and a grain broker (Agricole). Our combined consumer behaviour and food technology studies will determine the acceptability of fibre-rich white bread, whilst economic behavioural studies will focus on how sectors in the wheat agri-food supply chain (production to manufacturing and distribution) relate to one another. The first piece of work will ensure bread is produced which consumers want to purchase, whilst the second will inform the development of our Wheat Chain Model (WCM). This will be developed in collaboration with industry and informed by concurrent modelling of UK farming land usage (LUAM model), UK seasonal weather variation and changing climate impacts on UK domestic wheat production (GLAM-UK model) and international imports (GLAM model). Both the LUAM and GLAM models have previously accounted for wheat, and the GLAM model will be adapted to the UK during our project. Life Cycle Assessment work will help determine which environmental impacts might be affected by the change in wheat cultivars and include an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of these impacts, The WCM will account for the dynamics of the UK wheat agri-food chain and take account of domestic production versus flour received from imports. Industry informed modelling with all industry partners and their respective associations will quantify the transformational steps needed to increase fibre-rich flour production against a complex backdrop of domestic and imported wheat demand. We will utilise a range of data to inform the WCM including publicly available data such as the Farm Business Survey, data available via our industry partners, surveys of UK Flour Miller members and other industry stakeholders. Data collected during the project on how participants in the chain relate to one another will be analysed. It will both inform our WCM, and be available to other researchers and the public via our project website. We will create a graphical user interface (GUI) for our Wheat Chain Model. This will allow stakeholders and policy makers access to the model both during and after the project and the generic nature of the model will mean it can easily be applied to other agri-food chains, besides wheat.