SECURE: SElf Conserving URban Environments

到2050年，英国人口预计将达到8000万，预计绝大多数人将继续生活在城市。除了人口更加密集之外，未来的城市将被不断扩大的城区所包围。城市内部的互动；在整个城市地区以及周边城市、城镇和英国其他地区的“农村”地区，将对基础设施提出新的和不同的要求，无论是住房、能源、交通、货运配送还是废物处理。现在做出的决定将对交通、生活空间、能源使用和生态系统服务（人类从生态系统中获得的好处）产生深远的影响。这些决定将在两个完全不同的空间尺度上发挥作用。首先，也是迄今为止更容易理解的，是那些涉及单个家庭及其社区的决定。这些问题包括他们的成员如何四处走动，他们住什么样的房子，如何减少他们的能源需求和废物产生，以及如何限制他们对更广泛环境的负面影响。其次，关于区域规划的大规模战略决策将决定英国人口增长的主要适应范围。这将决定所需的运输和能源基础设施类型以及环境影响，并受其影响。显然，这两套决策并不是独立的。大规模发展的需求和影响（无论是创建新的城市地区还是强化现有的城市地区）——以及如何最好地实现可持续发展——将不会受到家庭目前表现出的典型需求和影响的影响，而是受到这些需求和影响的改变方式的影响，以响应相关基础设施的修改。这在预测和评价不同可能的区域发展情景的可能后果方面构成了一个具有挑战性的问题。拟议的研究自我保护城市环境（SECURE）将通过制定一系列未来区域城市化情景，并探索其对资源需求和供应（交通、住房、能源和生态系统服务）以及可持续废物利用等重点问题的影响，解决这一跨尺度整合的巨大挑战（全球目标）。在此过程中，它将建立在以前几个苏项目的研究成果的基础上，并在政策和经济增长的背景下利用其关系。该研究包括五大跨领域主题下的具体研究目标——城市化、生态系统服务、建筑与能源、利益相关者参与和跨主题政策整合。SECURE的设计目的是组装新颖的可交付成果，为当前的知识和实践带来阶段性的变化。东北地区将被用作一个试验台，到2050年的过渡情景评估将通过跨主题的保护来量化跨尺度整合的效益。SECURE将提供2030年和2050年的政策制定和规划决策，重点是创造可持续的城市环境。该项目的贡献者是具有国际地位的研究人员，他们在EPSRC资助的几个项目中进行了广泛的合作，包括自成立以来的SUE研究。SECURE团队建立在他们目前在SUE2 4M项目上的合作基础上。该项目财团由纽卡斯尔领导-玛格丽特·贝尔教授作为PI和Anil Namdeo博士作为Jenny Brake博士与学术合作伙伴的协调员：David Graham教授（环境工程），David Manning教授（地球科学）；拉夫堡：Kevin Lomas教授、Jonathan Wright教授和Steven Firth博士（土木与建筑工程）；谢菲尔德：Kevin Gaston教授和Jonathan Leake博士（动植物科学）。

The U.K. population is projected to reach 80 million by 2050 and it is anticipated that the overwhelming majority will continue to live in cities. Besides becoming more densely populated, future cities will be surrounded with expanding urban areas. Interactions within cities; across urban areas and with surrounding cities, towns and 'rural' areas with the rest of the UK will place new and different demands on infrastructure, whether housing, energy, transport, freight distribution and disposal of waste. Decisions that are made now will have profound implications for the resultant pressures on transport, living space, energy use, and ecosystem services (the benefits humans receive from ecosystems). These decisions will play out at two fundamentally different spatial scales. First, and by far the better understood, are those decisions that concern individual households and their neighbourhoods. These include issues of how their members move around, what kinds of housing they occupy, how their energy demands and waste production are reduced, and how their negative influences on the wider environment generally will be limited. Second, broad scale strategic decisions regarding regional planning will determine where in the U.K. population growth is primarily accommodated. This will determine, and be shaped by, the kinds of transport and energy infrastructure required, and the environmental impacts. Obviously these two sets of decisions are not independent. The demands for and impacts of broad scale development (whether this be the creation of new urban areas or the intensification of existing ones) - and thus how this is best achieved to deliver sustainability- will be influenced not by the typical demands and impacts exhibited now by households, but by the way in which these have been changed in response to the modification to the associated infrastructure. This makes for a challenging problem in predicting and evaluating the possible consequences of different potential scenarios of regional development. The proposed study SElf Conserving URban Environments (SECURE) will address this grand challenge of integration across scales (the global aim) by developing a range of future regional urbanization scenarios, and exploring their consequences for selected high profile issues of resource demand and provision (transport, dwellings, energy, and ecosystem services) alongside sustainable waste utilisations. In doing so, it will build on findings of research outputs of several previous SUE projects and harness its relationship in the context of policy and economic growth. The study includes specific research objectives under five broad cross-cutting themes - Urbanisation, Ecosystems Services, Building and Energy, Stakeholder Engagement and Policy Integration across themes. SECURE is designed to assemble novel deliverables to bring about step change in current knowledge and practice. The North East Region will be used as a test bed and evaluation of transitional scenarios leading up to 2050 will quantify the benefits of integration across the scales through conservation across the themes. SECURE will deliver policy formulation and planning decisions for 2030 and 2050 with a focus on creating Sustainable Urban Environment.The contributors to this project are researchers of international standings who have collaborated extensively on several EPSRC funded projects, including the SUE research since its inception. The SECURE team builds on their current collaboration on the SUE2 4M project. The Project consortium is led by Newcastle - Prof Margaret Bell as PI and Dr Anil Namdeo as co-ordinator alongside Dr Jenny Brake with academic partners: Prof David Graham (Environmental Engineering), Prof David Manning (Geosciences); from Loughborough: Prof Kevin Lomas, Prof Jonathan Wright and Dr Steven Firth (Civil and Building Engineering); from Sheffield: Prof Kevin Gaston and Dr Jonathan Leake (Animal and Plant Sciences).