Multi-sectoral interactions in global energy end-use

这项研究金提案旨在通过开发一套相互作用的多部门能源最终使用系统技术传播理论和计算模型，计算未来能源最终使用中的技术变化和二氧化碳排放情景。将这一系列模型整合到全球能源-经济-环境(E3)模型(E3 MG)中，将创建第一个全球E3模型，同时考虑技术扩散模式、所有能源使用部门(运输、工业、最终用途)引发的技术变化、自然资源约束和部门之间的相互作用。减少二氧化碳排放需要改变能源消耗技术，如运输、照明、供暖和冷却系统的车辆，以及钢炉和铝冶炼厂等工业系统。从历史上看，技术的变化是随着工程和生产供应链的进步而逐步发生的，但也是通过习惯和行为的演变而发生的。这种历史扩散模式已经使用S曲线[1]进行了广泛的研究，人们已经认识到，为了改善未来能源使用的情景，需要将它们包括在能源模型中，但它们在当前模型中的实施和保持不存在是具有挑战性的[2]。例如，技术替代包括用电动汽车取代汽油汽车或用热泵取代燃气锅炉，但也包括用一套习惯取代另一套习惯，例如从私人汽车使用转向公共交通工具。从多个部门的角度来看，个别减排措施在能源使用效率方面具有相互协同或相互不利的作用。这些措施的协调是一个复杂的问题，需要仔细规划，理想情况下应以同时分析整个E3互动系统为基础。例如，在计算政策和经济情景造成的全球温室气体排放量时，需要同时研究所有能源消费和转型部门的排放量：发电、工业、运输和最终用途，受这些部门对服务或商品的需求推动。为该研究金提出的研究首先涉及能源终端部门技术变革的一整套新的子模型，并将其纳入现有的全球能源-经济-环境模型(E3 MG)。E3 MG是全球经济的大规模宏观计量经济学模型，包括全球20个地区和42个工业部门。这项工作将使用自己最近开发的一个新的理论框架来预测竞争市场中的技术扩散和边做边学，该框架已成功应用于构建全球电力行业E3MG的新子模型。该项目的核心将涉及使用所有模型的组合来生成英国和全球未来的技术和二氧化碳排放情景，使用法规、世界人口和土地使用等外部假设。这还将使小组其他成员能够探讨“绿色增长”等宏观经济影响。拟议的工作将受益于在项目发展的所有阶段与一组利益攸关方进行双向互动。这将涉及三个主要群体：剑桥计量经济学的应用经济学家、东安格利亚大学廷德尔中心的环境科学家，以及英国能源和气候变化部以及英国能源研究中心的政策顾问和研究人员。这些小组将通过为经济提供桥梁技术方面的见解来做出贡献，在英国脱碳战略的背景下为气候政策提供指导，并能够探索与未来二氧化碳排放相关的环境和人类影响。

This fellowship proposal is for the calculation of future scenarios of technological change and CO2 emissions in energy end-use, through the development of an interacting multi-sectoral family of theoretical and computational models of technology diffusion in energy end-use systems. The integration of this family of models into the Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Model at the Global level (E3MG) will create the first global E3 model to consider simultaneously technology diffusion patterns, induced technological change in all sectors of energy use (transport, industry, end-use), natural resource constraints and the interaction between sectors.The reduction of CO2 emissions requires changes of energy consuming technologies, such as vehicles for transport, lighting, heating and cooling systems, as well as industrial systems such as steel furnaces and aluminium smelters. Historically changes of technology occur gradually, following advances in engineering and production supply chains, but also through evolutions of habits and behaviours. Such historical diffusion patterns have been studied extensively using S-shaped curves [1], and it has been recognised that their inclusion in energy modelling is required in order to improve scenarios of future energy use, but they are challenging to implement and remain absent in current models [2]. Technology substitutions include for instance the replacement of petrol cars by electric vehicles or gas boilers by heat pumps, but also the replacement of one set of habits by another, such as switching from personal car use to public transport.Individual emissions reduction measures have, when put in a multi-sectoral context, mutual synergies or they can be detrimental to one another, in terms of efficiency of energy use. The coordination of such measures is a complex problem that requires careful planning, and should ideally be based on analysing simultaneously the whole system of E3 interactions. For example, the calculation of global greenhouse gas emissions resulting from policies and economic scenarios involves a simultaneous study of emissions from all energy consumption and transformation sectors: power generation, industry, transport and end-use, driven by the demand for services or goods in these sectors. The research proposed for this fellowship concerns firstly the development and integration of a complete family of new sub-models of technological change in energy end-use sectors into the existing Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level (E3MG). E3MG is a large-scale macroeconometric model of the global economy, featuring 20 world regions and 42 industrial sectors. This work will use a new theoretical framework that was recently developed by myself for forecasting technological diffusion and learning-by-doing in competitive markets, which was successfully applied to construct a new sub-model for E3MG of the global power sector. The core of this project will involve using the combination of all models to generate UK and global future scenarios of technology and CO2 emissions, using external assumptions such as regulations, world population and land use. This will additionally enable fellow group members to explore macroeconomic impacts such as "green growth".The work proposed will benefit from two-way interactions with a group of stakeholders at all stages of the project development. This will involve three main groups: applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics, environmental scientists of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East-Anglia and policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the UK Energy Research Centre. These groups will contribute by providing insight in bridging technology to the economy, contribute guidance on climate policy in the context of the UK's decarbonisation strategy and enable to explore environmental and human impacts associated with future CO2 emission.