Flood MEMORY: Multi-Event Modelling Of Risk & recoverY

该项目将研究一系列或一系列极端天气事件袭击脆弱的防洪系统、城市地区、社区和企业所造成的最严重的洪水情景。该项目将分析和模拟在海岸或河流防御设施受损后尚未恢复之前可能发生第二次洪水的情况，或家庭和小企业从第一次洪水中恢复过来时处于脆弱状态的情况。通过研究这些事件并确定最坏的情况，我们希望我们的研究结果能够提高洪水抵御能力，更好地分配资源用于保护和恢复。最终，所开发的过程可以在全世界范围内使用。由于对未来气候的预测中暴风雨的增加，洪水发生频率和严重程度的变化受到密切关注。该项目将着眼于观察到的风暴记录，并试图了解集群如何模糊甚至加剧任何气候引起的变化。这对于现在设计洪水防御方案是至关重要的，这些方案将在未来几十年里发挥作用，因为目前估算固定气候下风险的方法不能完全考虑到观测到的洪水事件集群和变异性的可能变化。该项目的其他方面将关注海岸（海滩、沙丘和工程防御）和河流在风暴中的表现。特别令人感兴趣的是以前的风暴和洪水移动沉积物（即瓦，沙和河床物质）的影响，因此当第二次洪水事件到来时，海滩或河流处于不同（可能较弱）的状态。沉积物的运动很难预测，因为它们大多发生在风暴期间，所以我们对这些过程的了解目前还很缺乏。

The project will look at the most critical flood scenarios caused by sequences or clusters of extreme weather events striking vulnerable systems of flood defences, urban areas, communities and businesses. The project will analyse and simulate situations where a second flood may strike before coastal or river defences have been reinstated after damage, or householders and small businesses are in a vulnerable condition recovering from the first flood. By examining such events and identifying the worst case scenarios, we hope our findings will lead to enhanced flood resilience and better allocation of resources for protection and recovery. Ultimately the processes developed could be used worldwide. Changes in the frequency and severity of flooding are under close scrutiny due to increased storminess in projections of future climate. The project will look at observed records of storms and try to understand how clustering may obscure or even exacerbate any climate induced changes. This is crucial for designing flood defence schemes now, which will operate for decades into the future, as current methods of estimating risk in a stationary climate do not fully account for the observed clustering of flood events and possible changes in variability. Other aspects of the project will look at how coasts (beaches, dunes and engineered defences) and rivers behave during storms. Of particular interest is the effect of previous storms and floods moving sediment (i.e. shingle, sand and river bed material) so that the beach or river is in a different (perhaps weaker) condition when a second flood event arrives. The movement of sediment is difficult to predict as mostly happens during storms, so our knowledge of these processes is currently lacking.