The creation of localized current and future weather for the built environment

众所周知，气候变化将对英国的建筑设计和能源使用产生重大影响。在建筑科学和建筑界也知道，目前用于建筑物热建模的天气文件只代表平均天气，而不是热浪或寒流。正如2003年热浪期间巴黎14 000人死亡所表明的那样，这是一个非常严重的问题，有必要确保未来建筑的设计能够应对未来的天气，或当前的极端天气。此外，建筑行业和建筑科学家目前使用的天气档案将英国仅划分为14个地区，例如，整个西南半岛（包括高地地区）被分配为沿海普利茅斯天气档案。众所周知，这很容易导致估计年能源需求的误差达到200%。这种误差的规模如此之大，以至于工程师们所进行的许多动态模拟都存在问题。当在建筑法规框架内使用模拟时，这是不幸的，但当试图使用模拟来估计预先存在的建筑物的弹性或其脆弱的居住者可能面临的危险时，这是致命的。该项目的目的是看看是否可以设计出一种方法，能够以5公里的分辨率创建2015年至2080年覆盖整个英国的当地天气，并在此文件中包含代表平均值的各种偏差：例如热浪和寒流。我们将使用该团队已经发布的一种方法，与UKCP09天气发生器一起，以大约5公里的分辨率产生当前和未来的典型天气。WP2先前工作包中的工作最初需要创建每个站点数千年的天气。在最初的几年里，会有大量建筑科学家或工程师感兴趣的天气事件。这些文件将用于1200种不同建筑和建筑用途的计算机模型，以确定天气变量巧合的关键驱动因素，这些因素定义了建筑系统故障或居住者热问题的可能性。在WP2中描述了哪些事件最能描述建筑物、其居住者和系统的压力。事件年（即代表非典型的热、干、冷和湿时期的一小时时间步上的天气数据变量的时间序列）将为整个英国创建。WP4生成了事件年份，并对1200座建筑进行了模拟，两者将重新组合，生成英国应对气候变化的第一张地图。虽然其他人已经使用平均天气年来研究建筑环境的区域弹性，但关注的不是建筑物和居住者对这种平均时间序列的反应，而是对更极端事件的反应。WP5考虑到提出的大量文件，需要给出指导，说明在实践中使用哪些文件，以及如何在建筑法规和其他文件中表达这些文件。我们计划使用案例研究作为主要的指导工具。这将大大增加他们的知识有效性的目标听众执业工程师。总的来说，我们预计该指南将在100个实际建筑项目中进行测试。WP6影响。该项目生成的所有天气文件将至少在10年内公开。项目结束时将进行一系列路演。在这些活动中，项目的结果将呈现给大量用户。这个想法将向整个英国建筑环境社区介绍在项目产生的天气数据的帮助下设计弹性建筑的想法。还将制作一部短片，供不能出席的人和国际观众观看。

It is well known that climate change will have a significant impact on UK building design and energy use. It is also known within the building science and architectural communities that the current weather files used for thermal modeling of buildings only represent average weather rather than heat waves or cold snaps. As was shown by the 14,000 deaths in Paris during the 2003 heat wave, this is a highly serious issue and there is the need to ensure future buildings are designed to deal with future weather, or extremes of current weather.In addition, the current weather files used by the construction industry and building scientists divide the UK into only 14 regions, with, for example, the whole of the South West peninsular (including up-land areas) being assigned the coastal Plymouth weather file. It is known that this can easily lead to a 200% error in the estimation of annual energy demand. The scale of this error is such that it renders many of the dynamic simulations carried out by engineers questionable. This is unfortunate when simulation is used within the framework of the building regulations, but it is fatal when trying to use simulation to estimate how resilient a pre-existing building is, or the danger its vulnerable occupants might be in. The aim of this project will be to see if a method can be devised that is capable of creating local weather from 2015 to 2080 covering the whole UK at a resolution of 5km, and to include within this files that represent various excursions from the mean: e.g. heat waves and cold snaps. An interdisciplinary approach is envisaged with the project separated into six work packages:WP1 We will use a method already published by the team together with the UKCP09 weather generator to produce current and future typical weather at a resolution of approximately 5km. WP2 The work in the previous work package will initially require the creation of thousands of years of weather per site. Within these initial years will reside a large number of weather events of interest to the building scientist or engineer. These files will be used in computer models of 1200 differing architectures and building uses to identify what are the key drivers of weather variable coincidence that defines the likelihood of building system failure or thermal issues for occupants. WP3 Having characterised which events best describe the stresses on a building, its occupants and systems in WP2. Event years (i.e. times series of weather data variables on a one hour time step that represent atypical hot, dry, cold and wet periods) will be created for the whole UK. WP4 Having generated the event years, and simulations from the 1200 buildings, the two will be recombined to produce the first map of UK resilience to a changing climate. Although others have looked at the regional resilience of the built environment using average weather years, the concern is not about the response of building and occupants to such average time series, but to more extreme events. WP5 Given the large number of files proposed, guidance will need to be given on which to use in practice, and how this might be expressed in the building regulations and other documentation. We plan to use case studies as the main guidance tool. This will add greatly to their intellectual validity within the target audience of practicing engineers. In total, we expect the guidance to be tested on >100 real building projects. WP6 Impact. All weather files produced by the project will be publicly available for a minimum of 10 years. A series of road shows will be undertaken at the end of the project. At these events the results of the project will be presented to a large number of users. The idea will be to introduce the whole UK built environment community to the idea of designing resilient buildings aided by the weather data produced by the project. A short film will also be produced for those that cannot attend and for an international audience.