Residential Electricity Demand: Peaks, Sequences of Activities and Markov chains (REDPeAk)

高峰电力需求正成为英国电网日益严重的问题，因为它导致需求和供应之间的失衡，对系统成本和环境产生负面影响。居民部门约占总电力需求的三分之一(DECC，2013)。在需求高峰期，批发市场的电价可能从不到0.04欧元/千瓦时到高达0.35欧元/千瓦时不等(Torriti，2015)。未来，由于供应组合中间歇性可再生能源的整合，以及电动汽车和电动热泵的高渗透率，预计高峰问题将恶化。了解高峰的构成并确定有效的负荷转移干预领域，对于平衡电力需求和供应至关重要。虽然有关于总用电量水平的信息，但对住宅高峰需求以及可能提供的灵活性水平知之甚少。红峰的整体目标是分析在电力需求高峰期发生的活动顺序的变化，以期找出可为高峰时段干预提供灵活性的用户群。该项目将分析来自英国国家统计局时间使用调查的10分钟解决时间使用活动数据，以期得出有关活动占用和同步的信息。马尔科夫链将被用来结合电器特定的参数数据来对负载分布进行建模。由于除高峰时段外，马尔可夫链在生成电力负荷分布方面已被证明是有效的，RedPeak将开发混合蒙特卡罗模型，以考虑高峰期间需求以较大步长移动的情况。序列分析将用于在电力需求高峰期进行采矿活动。RedPeak将根据活动顺序对受访者进行分组，并分析特定于电器的控制变量在多大程度上解释了一天中特定时间的活动。三个数据集将用于计量数据和时间使用数据之间的直接验证。序列分析的结果将提供给自动化需求管理或需求侧响应的算法。

Peak electricity demand is becoming an increasingly significant problem for UK networks as it causes imbalances between demand and supply with negative impacts on system costs and the environment. The residential sector is responsible for about one third of overall electricity demand (DECC, 2013). During peak demand, electricity prices in wholesale markets could fluctuate from less than 0.04 Euros/kWh to as much as 0.35 Euros/kWh (Torriti, 2015). In the future the peak problem is expected to worsen due to the integration of intermittent renewables in the supply mix as well as high penetration of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Understanding what constitutes peaks and identifying areas of effective load shifting intervention becomes vital to the balancing of demand and supply of electricity. Whilst there is information about the aggregate level of consumption of electricity, little is known about residential peak demand and what levels of flexibility might be available. REDPeak will fill this gap.The overall aim of REDPeak is to analyse the variation in sequences of activities taking place at times of peak electricity demand with a view to identify clusters of users which might provide flexibility for peak shifting intervention. The project will analyse 10-minute resolution time use activity data from the UK Office for National Statistics Time Use Survey with a view to derive information about occupancy and synchronisation of activities. Markov chains will be used to model load profiles in combination with appliance-specific parameter data. Since Markov chains have proven effective at generating electricity load profiles except for peak times, REDPeak will develop Hybrid Monte Carlo modelling to account for demand moving in larger steps during peak periods. Sequence analysis will be used to mine activities at periods of peak electricity demand. REDPeak will cluster respondents according to sequences of activities and analyse to what extent appliance-specific control variables explain activities at specific times of the day. Three datasets will be used for direct validation between metered data and time use data. Findings on sequence analysis will feed into algorithms for automated demand management or Demand Side Response.