Newton Fund (Invitation Only): DISASTER RESILIENT CITIES: FORECASTING LOCAL LEVEL CLIMATE EXTREMES AND PHYSICAL HAZARDS FOR KUALA LUMPUR

马来西亚最近发生的自然灾害，如2014/15年的大范围洪灾和2007年吉隆坡的山洪暴发，表明需要改进破坏性自然灾害的预测以及管理相关风险和后果的能力。该项目以“未来城市”为主题，重点是预测和管理与吉隆坡相关的物质风险，吉隆坡是马来西亚首都，也是马来西亚人口最多的城市，约有800万居民。这个项目的目标是洪水、山体滑坡、塌陷、强风、城市高温和空气污染，这在吉隆坡很常见。来自英国和马来西亚的16个研究和商业合作伙伴已经为这个项目组建了一个财团。基本策略是适应和结合现有技术，提高风险预测能力，主要目标是开发一个适用于风险沟通的原型多风险信息平台。主要受益者将是马来西亚地方政府和保险业的风险经理和决策者。该项目的目标与马来西亚科学行动倡议有关，该倡议的目的是动员科学促进社会福祉。伦敦大学学院是英国的主要学术合作伙伴之一，在吉隆坡的城市洪水风险和城市热岛模拟方面为WP2做出了贡献。就城市洪水风险而言，伦敦大学学院的角色是在风险评估中对降雨情景的确定做出贡献，并提出和测试从降雨和城市洪水情景进行损失估计的方法。这项工作将与JBA和马来西亚大都会艺术博物馆密切合作进行。在城市热岛模拟的背景下，UCL将修改现有的软件平台，以适应热带气候的具体情况，并更好地表征不同建筑材料对建筑环境的吸热和储热的影响。新版本的软件将用于评估吉隆坡几个试点地区对与高温相关的危险的易感性，这些地区被选为具有不同土地利用特征和城市特征的地区。这项工作将与CERC和马来西亚气象局合作进行，并将涉及实地调查。该项目的好处将包括改进有关自然灾害发生风险的信息，使马来西亚地方当局能够制定更好的应急计划，以减轻此类灾害的影响。这将反过来为马来西亚公民提供经济利益和改善生活质量。改进有关地球物理和大气灾害的信息也将有助于保险服务的发展。

Recent natural disasters in Malaysia, such as the wide-spread floods in 2014/15 and the flash flooding of Kuala Lumpur in 2007, have revealed that improvements are required in the prediction of damaging natural hazards and in the capacity to manage the associated risks and consequences. Appropriate to the theme of 'future cities', the focus of this project is the prediction and management of physical risks relevant to Kuala Lumpur, which is the Malaysian capital and the most populated city in Malaysia with around 8 million inhabitants. The particular hazards to be targeted in this project, that are common in Kuala Lumpur, are floods, landslides, sink holes, strong winds, urban heat and air pollution.A consortium of 16 research and business partners from the UK and Malaysia has been assembled for this project. The basic strategy is to adapt and combine existing technologies to enhance hazard forecasting ability, and the main objective is to develop a prototype multi-hazard information platform suitable for communicating risks. The primary beneficiaries will be risk managers and decision-makers in Malaysian local government and the insurance sector. The project objectives relate to the Malaysian Science to Action initiative, which has an aim of mobilising science for societal well-being. University College London is one of the main UK academic partners and contributes to WP2 on both the simulation urban flood risk and urban heat islands in Kuala Lumpur.With relation to urban flood risk, UCL's role is to contribute to the determination of rainfall scenarios in the hazard assessment, and to propose and test approaches for loss estimation from the rainfall and urban flooding scenarios. This work will be carried out in close collaboration with JBA and Met Malaysia.In the context of the urban heat island simulations, UCL will modify an existing software platform to account for the specifics of tropical climates and better characterise the effects of varying building materials on the heat absorption and heat storage of the built environment. The new version of the software will be used to assess the susceptibility to heat-related hazards of several pilot areas in Kuala Lumpur, selected to have different land use features and urban characteristics. This work will be carried out in collaboration with CERC and Met Malaysia, and will involve field investigations.Benefits of the project will include improved information regarding the risks of occurrence of natural hazards that will enable Malaysian local authorities to make better contingency plans to mitigate the effects of such hazards. This will in turn provide economic benefits and improve the quality of life for Malaysian citizens. Improved information about geophysical and atmospheric hazards will also aid the development of insurance services.