Coastal modelling of extreme storms and sea-level rise (CMESSLR)

目前，有6亿多人生活在平均海平面以上10米以下的地方，由于气候变化，海平面上升（SLR）和风暴的潜在变化将使这些沿海社区越来越多地面临沿海洪水和侵蚀的风险。为了预测这些气候变化后果对沿海地区的影响，并帮助设计应对这些影响的适应战略，需要在一系列时间尺度上运行的准确和可靠的数值模型，从实时和可操作的沿海洪水模型到长期和战略性的沿海演变模型。有各种各样的商业和定制数值沿海影响模型，“沿海建模”已发展成为一个庞大而重要的研究领域。普利茅斯大学海岸过程研究小组由PI Masselink领导，参与了两项主要的数值建模工作：（1）与EA洪水预报小组合作，为英格兰西南海岸开发一个可操作的沿海洪水模型;（2）在环境署的参与下，模拟珊瑚礁岛屿对海平面上升的反应。这些模型可以大大改进。例如，实用的沿海洪水模型是一个流体动力学模型，而不是一个形态动力学模型，珊瑚礁岛模型还不够先进，无法处理岛屿的长期演变。通过与荷兰各机构的一些世界领先的沿海研究人员和建模人员的互动与合作，（Delaware），新西兰（奥克兰大学）和美国（USGS），这项海外旅行补助金的目的是资助为期6个月的休假，以提高PI Masselink的海岸建模能力，并将这种增强的理解转移给普利茅斯海岸研究团队的其他成员（CPRG和CMAR），可能会对普利茅斯大学的沿海研究和建模能力产生变革性影响。计划从2020年1月中旬至2020年7月中旬进行三次连续2个月的访视。研究访问的直接目的是：（1）研究世界领先的建模人员提供的最新沿海数值建模技术，并与他们及其学生就一些专题/问题进行合作;（2）加强与沿海数值建模人员和珊瑚礁专家的现有国际合作并发展新的国际合作;（3）在珊瑚礁岛屿环境中进行研究，以提高实地专门知识;及（4）产生若干实质成果及影响。除了PI Masselink及其研究小组的研究访问所带来的直接利益外，预期访问的实质成果如下：* 向一份具影响力的期刊提交一份关于珊瑚礁岛屿形态动力学模型的全文论文。这篇论文很可能是大多数研究访问主持人共同撰写的。向《自然》/《科学》杂志提交了一封简短的信/评论，论证了形态动力学建模对评估珊瑚礁岛屿长期未来的重要性。提交给NERC的一项大型赠款提案围绕珊瑚礁岛屿对SLR的形态动力学响应主题进行了定义，其中至少有一个研究访问主机作为外部合作伙伴。向EPSRC提交了一份标准研究补助金，重点是沿海洪水风险建模，包括形态动力学。这项建议也可能涉及至少一个研究访问东道国作为外部伙伴。

SUMMARYCurrently, more than 600 million people live <10 m above mean sea level, and sea-level rise (SLR) and potential changes in storminess, due to climate change, will increasingly expose these coastal communities to increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion. To predict coastal impacts of these climate change consequences, and help design adaptation strategies to deal with these impacts, requires accurate and robust numerical models operating over a range of time scales, from real-time and operational coastal flooding models to long-term and strategic coastal evolution models. A very wide variety of commercial and bespoke numerical coastal impact models are available and 'coastal modelling' has developed into a large and important research area.Led by PI Masselink, the Coastal Processes Research Group at the University of Plymouth is involved with two major numerical modelling efforts: (1) development of an operational coastal flooding model for the SW coast of England in collaboration with the EA flood forecasting team; and (2) modelling the response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise with involvement of UNEP. These models can be significantly improved. For example, the operational coastal flooding model is a hydrodynamic, rather than a morphodynamic model, and the coral reef island modelling is not yet advanced enough to deal with long-term island evolution. Through interaction and collaboration with a number of world-leading coastal researchers and modellers at institutions in the Netherlands (Deltares), New Zealand (University of Auckland) and the United States (USGS), the aim of this Overseas Travel Grant is to fund a 6-month sabbatical to increase PI Masselink's coastal modelling capabilities and transfer this enhanced understanding to other members of Plymouth's coastal research team (CPRG and CMAR), potentially leading to transformative impacts on the coastal research and modelling capabilities at the University of Plymouth. Three back-to-back 2-month visits are planned from mid-January 2020 to mid-July 2020. The direct purpose of the research visits is to: (1) study up-to-date numerical coastal modelling techniques from world-leading modellers and collaborate with them and their students on a number of topics/issues; (2) strengthen existing and develop new international collaborations with coastal numerical modellers and coral reef experts; (3) carry out research in a coral reef island environment to enhance field expertise; and (4) produce a number of tangible outputs and impacts.In addition to the direct benefits associated with the research visits for PI Masselink and his research group, the following tangible outputs of the visits are anticipated:* A full-length paper submitted to a high-impact journal on the coral reef island morphodynamic modelling. This paper is likely to be co-authored by most of the research visit hosts.* A short letter/commentary submitted to Nature/Science arguing the importance of morphodynamic modelling to evaluate the long-term future of coral reef islands.* One large grant proposal submitted to NERC defined around the topic of morphodynamic response of coral reef islands to SLR involving at least one of the research visit hosts as external partner.* One standard research grant submitted to EPSRC focussing on modelling coastal flood risk, including the morphodynamics. This proposal is also likely to involve at least one of the research visit hosts as external partner.