Evolutionary Ecology of Phenological Coadaptation across Scales

季节事件发生时间的变化（物候学）为人类引起的气候变化对生物系统的影响提供了最有力和最明确的证据。我们对这些变化的重要性的理解一直被这样一种观点所主导，即不同营养水平之间时间同步的破坏是其影响的关键决定因素。然而，以前的工作在很大程度上忽略了同步的空间尺度的关键问题，以及它如何支撑将调解任何影响的基本生物过程。本文利用一个经典的模型系统来理解与气候变化相关的物候变化，解决了物候同步性中缺失的空间尺度视角。利用由落叶树、食植物昆虫和食肉鸟类（如橡树-冬蛾-大山雀）组成的三营养系统，这项工作将集中在一个长期的研究系统上，提供几十年的数据和成千上万的历史记录，为这项工作奠定坚实的基础。利用这个平台，这里描述的工作将(i)开发新的自动化方法来有效地测量物候，以及（ii）新的实验方法来剖析物候不匹配的生态和进化影响。它将进一步，（iii）实验测试物候变化在空间和时间上对推动当地适应的作用；（iv）验证当生产者物候的空间差异越大时，消费者多样性和生产力越高的假设；(v)阐明消费者的行为灵活性如何使物候景观得到最佳利用；（vi）确定尺度依赖的物候变化如何缓冲气候变化。这里发展的新方法和观点将扩大我们对物候变化的生物学重要性的理解，同时将这种新理解与正在进行的全球变化联系起来。

Changes in the timing of seasonal events (phenology) provide the strongest and clearest evidence for effects of human-caused climate change on biotic systems. Our understanding of the importance of these changes has been dominated by the idea that the disruption of temporal synchrony between different trophic levels is a key determinant of their impact. However, previous work has largely ignored the crucial question of the spatial scale of synchrony and how this underpins the fundamental biological processes that would mediate any effect. This proposal addresses the missing perspective of spatial scale in phenological synchrony, using a classic model system for understanding changes in phenology in relation to climatic variation. Using the tri-trophic system of deciduous trees, phytophagous insects and predatory birds (exemplified by oak-winter moth-great tit), the work will be centred on a long-term study system, providing decades of data and tens of thousands of historical records which place the work on secure foundations. Using this platform, the work described here will (i) develop new automated methods for effective measurement of phenology at scale, and (ii) new experimental methods for dissecting the ecological and evolutionary effects of phenological mismatch. It will further, (iii) test experimentally the role of phenological variation in space and time in driving local adaptation; (iv) test the hypothesis that consumer diversity and productivity is higher when spatial variation in producer phenology is higher, (v) elucidate how behavioural flexibility of consumers enables optimal exploitation of phenological landscapes and (vi) determine how scale-dependent phenological variation can buffer against climatic variation. The new methods and perspectives developed here will expand our understanding of the biological importance of phenological variation while simultaneously relating this new understanding to ongoing global change.