Voters in Context: The British Election Study 2015

2015年，英国选民将在显著的社会经济和政治变革中进行投票。在这次选举之前，政治参与度、对机构和政治家的信任以及对主流政党的支持都有所下降。它将在历史性的联合政府、新的选区边界、议员人数减少以及苏格兰独立公投的背景下进行。在此之前，希腊经历了一段经济衰退时期，社会不平等加剧，政府试图同时实施紧缩和增长，政治选择困难。2015年英国选举研究将需要解决代表性和问责制方面的问题，与主流政治选择日益脱节的问题，以及经济困难和紧缩对政治态度和参与的影响。我们提出的以“语境中的选民”为主题的研究，旨在帮助理解不断变化的政治、经济和社会背景如何影响英国的选举行为。研究设计将允许用户通过空间分散的调查样本分析地理多样性在社会、政治和经济背景下的影响。在连续的选举研究中比较选民的反应为历史政党、政治和制度背景的作用提供了重要的证据。这将通过最大限度地提高与过去研究的可比性来实现。这项研究还将使学者们通过确保英国和其他国家之间的可比性（通过提供CSES模块）来了解国家制度背景的作用。选举间小组将为强有力的因果分析、个人层面的随时间变化、问题措辞效应的实验研究以及由更广泛的学术界设计和为其设计的实验提供一个平台。用户将能够在每日简短竞选活动的背景下分析投票，使用从twitter收集的创新数据和每日选民调查。曼彻斯特大学、牛津大学和诺丁汉大学的联合提案旨在通过提供四个主要组成部分来解决这些问题：首先，通过面对面访谈进行高质量的基于地址的随机概率抽样调查，以获得最大的代表性、地理差异和宏观长期（长期）可比性。第二，跨四个年度选举期间的互联网小组，包括大选前和大选后的浪潮，允许分析个人层面的变化，强大的因果分析，并促进对选举期间政治事件和选举（地方，欧洲，地方，市长）的理解。第三，对选民进行每日滚雷式竞选研究，以便分析短期竞选效果，同时进行创新的每日推特收集，以提供有关竞选的重要背景信息。第四，选举后随机概率调查中的“选举制度比较研究”（CSES）模块，以实现所有重要的国际比较。该研究将通过数据链接和与相关的“卫星”研究和为行政目的收集的数据协调的程序，为英国选举研究开发一个综合数据基础设施，从而使资金价值最大化。我们将最大限度地提高BES的公共相关性、使用率、可及性、运营效率和学术影响，确保研究提供最物有所值的资金（通过大量机构贡献得到加强），并尽可能广泛地覆盖学者和其他用户群体。我们正在与国家组织合作，分析代表、参与和选民登记情况。我们还将提供BES的发展，作为一种工具，以提高对社会科学，特别是政治科学中定量方法的理解和使用。

In 2015 the British electorate will go to the polls amidst pronounced socio-economic and political changes. The election will follow a decline in political engagement, trust in institutions and politicians, and support for mainstream political parties. It will be fought in a context of the historic coalition government, new constituency boundaries, a reduced number of MPs, and a referendum on independence for Scotland. It will also follow a period of recession, rising social inequalities and difficult political choices as the government attempts to implement both austerity and growth. The 2015 British Election Study will need to address concerns about representation and accountability, growing disengagement with mainstream political choices, and the impact of economic hardships and austerity upon political attitudes and participation. Our proposed study, themed 'Voters in Context', is designed to aid understanding of how the changing political, economic and social context impact on British electoral behaviour. The study design will allow users to analyse the influence of the geographical diversity in social, political and economic context through a spatially dispersed survey sample. Comparing voter responses across successive election studies provides important evidence about the role of historical party political and institutional context. This will be made possible by maximising the extent of comparability with past studies. The study will also allow scholars to understand the role of national institutional context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries (through delivery of the CSES module). The inter-election panel will provide a platform for robust causal analysis, individual-level over-time change, the experimental study of question wording effects, and experiments designed by and for the wider academic community. Users will be able to analyse the vote in the context of the daily short campaign, using innovative data collection from twitter alongside a daily voter survey. This joint proposal from the Universities of Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham is designed to address these issues by provision of four main components: first a high quality address-based random probability sample survey conducted via face-to-face interviews for maximum representativeness, geographic variation and macro over-time (long-run) comparability. Second an inter-election internet panel across four annual waves, including pre- and post-general election waves, to allow analysis of individual level change, robust causal analysis, and to facilitate understanding of inter-election political events and elections (local, European, devolved, mayoral). Third, a daily rolling thunder campaign study of voters, to allow analysis of shorter term campaign effects, alongside innovative daily twitter harvesting, to provide important contextual information on the campaign. Fourth, a 'Comparative Study of Electoral Systems' (CSES) module in the post-election random probability survey to enable all-important international comparison. The study will maximise value for money through a program of data linkage and harmonisation with related "satellite" studies and data collected for administrative purposes, developing an integrated data infrastructure for the study of elections in Britain. We will maximise the public relevance, usage, accessibility, operational efficiency, and academic impact of the BES, ensuring that the study provides the best value for money (enhanced by substantial institutional contributions) and that it reaches the broadest possible community of scholars and other users. We are partnering with national organisations in their analysis of representation, engagement, and voter registration. We will also provide for the development of the BES as a vehicle for improving the understanding and usage of quantitative methods in social science in general and political science in particular.