Voters and the British Political System in the Context of Brexit: the British Election Study 2019-2026

近几十年来，英国选民变得越来越不稳定。这种不稳定的环境使得最近的政治冲击和事件带来了一个迅速和戏剧性的政治变革时期。2015年，我们目睹了政党支持的分裂，自由民主党（Liberal Democrats）垮台，英国独立党（UKIP）、绿党（Greens）和苏格兰民族党（SNP）等较小和较新的政党崛起。2017年，在英国脱欧公投之后，这种情况发生了逆转，保守党和工党的支持率大幅上升，许多选民根据自己对欧洲和移民的态度进行了选择。无论英国最终采取何种形式脱欧，都将对选举产生巨大影响，未来五年选举格局可能会进一步发生变化。《英国选举研究》的目的是提供对这些变化的深刻和理论上的了解。我们提议进行一项研究，最大限度地了解英国脱欧对选举和政治的直接影响——无论是对学术还是非学术受益者。我们提议的项目将通过为研究界收集高质量的调查数据，广泛的最相关和及时的问题，以及明确的传播和影响计划来实现这一目标。我们还将通过开展一项将选举波动的长期趋势与当代政治事件联系起来的理论研究计划来实现这一目标。该项目将受益于2014-2019年BES（和历史BES研究）在方法和理论方法方面的高度连续性，以及相当程度的创新，使BES保持在全球国家选举研究的前沿。BES将由两个核心部分组成：选举后全国代表性的公民横断面抽样调查；还有一个互联网小组。这些调查的内容将围绕问责制、代表性和对政治制度的支持等主题进行。这些调查将让用户了解并展示这些关键的民主领域是如何受到英国脱欧的影响的。这项研究的目的是调查地域和社会在代表性、问责制和系统支助方面的差异。通过最大限度地提高与过去研究的可比性，它也将有可能在连续的选举研究中比较选民的行为和态度。同样，BES将通过确保英国和其他国家之间的可比性，帮助研究人员了解国家背景的作用。选举期间小组将提供一个分析个人一级变化的驱动因素的平台，并将包括由用户社区设计并为用户社区设计的问题。用户将能够使用我们每天的选民样本来调查选举活动的影响。我们还将使包括其他调查在内的其他来源的数据联系起来成为可能。我们将与社会科学联盟合作，使研究人员能够匿名和安全地将Facebook数据与BES受访者联系起来，这将允许用户将BES调查结果与社交媒体行为数据结合起来。我们将留出15%的互联网小组作为创新模块（分为四个部分）。我们将把这个空间用于用户创建的模块，这些模块与用户的研究议程和更广泛的用户社区相关。这个调查空间也将允许BES团队尝试新的项目，并从其他研究中调整项目，以获得可比性和与文献中正在进行的辩论的相关性。我们定制的BES网站将提供方便的访问来自BES的数据和故事。咨询、活动和媒体参与计划将确保这项研究提高公众对选举政治的认识和理解，并协助学术和非学术研究人员开展自己的工作。

The British electorate has become more volatile in recent decades. This volatile environment has allowed recent political shocks and events to bring about a period of rapid and dramatic political change. In 2015 we witnessed fragmentation of party support with the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and the rise of smaller and newer parties such as UKIP, the Greens, and the SNP. In 2017, following the Brexit vote, this was reversed, with a surge in support for the Conservatives and Labour, with many voters choosing on the basis of their attitudes towards Europe and immigration. Whatever form Brexit eventually takes, it will have huge electoral consequences and the next five years are likely to see further shifts in the electoral landscape. The British Election Study will be designed to provide a deep and theoretically informed understanding of those changes. We are proposing a study that maximizes the understanding of the immediate electoral and political consequences of Brexit - both for academic and non-academic beneficiaries.Our proposed project will achieve this by collecting high quality survey data for the research community, a broad array of the most relevant and timely questions, and a clear dissemination and impact plan. We will also achieve this by carrying out a program of theoretically informed research linking long-term trends in electoral volatility and contemporary political events. The project will benefit from a high level of continuity with the 2014-2019 BES (and historical BES studies) in terms of methodological and theoretical approach and a substantial degree of innovation, keeping the BES at the forefront of national election studies globally. The BES will consist of two core components: a post-election cross-sectional nationally representative sample survey of citizens; and an internet panel. The content of these surveys will be organised around the themes of accountability, representation and support for the political system. The surveys will allow users to understand and demonstrate how these key areas of democracy are affected by Brexit. The study will be designed to allow investigation of geographical and social variation in representation, accountability and system support. By maximising the extent of comparability with past studies it will also make it possible to compare voter behaviour and attitudes across successive election studies. Similarly the BES will help researchers to understand the role of national context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries. The inter-election panel will provide a platform for analysing the drivers of individual-level change and will include questions designed by and for the user community. Users will be able to investigate the impact of the election campaign using our daily sample of voters. We will also make it possible to link data from other sources including other surveys. We will work with the Social Science One Consortium to enable researchers to link Facebook data to BES respondents anonymously and securely which will allow users to combine BES survey responses with behavioural social media data.We will set aside 15% of the Internet Panel as an Innovation Module (split into four parts). We will use this space for user-created modules that are relevant to both the users' research agendas and the wider user community. This survey space will also allow the BES team to trial new items and adapt items from other studies for comparability and relevance to ongoing debates in the literature. Our custom designed BES website will provide easy access to data and stories arising from the BES. A program of consultation, events and media engagement will ensure that the study enhances public awareness and understanding of electoral politics, and assist academic and non-academic researchers in their own work.